Job Market and MBA's

I believe application volume is up at many of the top schools this year. I think there are several explanations.

First, GMAT test volume is not up that much this year, so I think the natural conclusion is that each person is applying to more schools. That would result in an increase in the number of applications that schools receive without much change in the number of applicants.

The other thing is that applications from countries other than the US seem to be up quite a bit. So, the economy is pretty good here in the US, and US applications are relatively flat compared with the last couple years (way lower than 2003). I think the application volume correlates with the economy in this case. But it's harder to pin down the relation between foreign applicants and the economy.

My thoughts exactly. The 09 job market has me freaked out a lot more than the present job market. It's scary to think about what would happen if we hit a recession in 09.

But of course one that fears and doesnt dare, won't go anywhere!
Ah... (just made that up I guess, unfourtunately I already applied to some schools, maybe I'll put this phrase somewhere if I get an interview)...

Application volumes are up everywhere and not merely for top schools. I have enquired from 2 transelites and 1 near elite. Some of them have a 40% app increase this yr!

Ross publicly reported a 50% jump in R1 Volume. Cornell had such an increase they had to extend R2 and supposedly barely made it through R1. The GSB hasn't come out with figures either, but have commented that "this was a very competitive year".

As to the question of an up or down market, I don't worry about it. An MBA education will be sufficiently mutable so as to ensure that, at some point, I move into the area I'd seek to move into. There's just no point in trying to guess it.

If you want to though, here's how I see it playing out. You will see a sharp "correction" in real estate prices in 2007: a large number of interest only loans will baloon to higher payments, an increase in default rates and over inflated housing prices caused by speculation rather than true demand will bring the housing market to it's knees. This probably wont be a soft landing, you'll see many people become over under on their loans, and blammo. I imagine that will have a pretty signficant ripple effect on consumer confidence (when your neighbor gets evicted cause his baloon loan was a retarded idea and he cant refinance because the house is now worth less than the mortgage he seeks) - thereby restricting spending and sending us into a recession sometime, probably, in mid 2008.

Thats why my place is going on the market for sale now.

We're at that stage here in portugal.
And that's exactly my job, I work with non performing resedential loans, relationship management and investment options analysis.
My firm buys and is also a servicer for top investment banks, and its up to us to manage these types of loans, and when the houses are sold at judicial auctions I have to decide upon making offers, waiting for someone to make an offer that is enough to cover my npv or just try and postpone the auctions so that "out of the court" resolutions become plausible (in portugal at least, judicial sales give a 30% discount to real estates in order to stimulate the buy side).

And my thoughs are that this situation is getting worse everyday.

This is the main reason why I'm even considering taking advantage of my company's b-school sponsorship option. I don't really want to go back, but I could also do alot worse if the job market really tanks.

Lets hope so.

My firm pays - but a pathetic amount - only $5,000 a year - which is frankly basically nothing - and only if I'm part time.

In some respects I sometimes question my decision to go FT, because I know that I'll probably only make $10 to $20K more out of school than I do now, but theres really no other way to career switch.

I hear ya. By the time I actually start school, its going to be much more about the additional opportunities than the ROI. When I started thinking about b-school it was as much about enhanced lifestyle and income as it was about career and opportunity.

Ironically, if I came back to my company I'd probably get huge pay bump because I'd come in at a level or two above what new MBA hires come in at. My only worry with going the sponsorship route is that I may become complacent and ultimately settle. At the same time I'd prefer coming back to my current employer over taking an industry job so I might as well keep it as an insurance policy.

Has anybody else seen this since it was posted? This is absolutely uncanny and I am utterly amazed.

wow, rhyme was spot on, he not only predicted it correctly, but the timing was impeccable.

And here I was about to indignantly chastise someone for resurrecting a five-year old thread, but wow... that was eery...

I will now officially follow every single word of advice rhyme reccomends in his BSchool App Guide