Booth 2012 - Calling All Applicants

I think if you get an invite anywhere (besides schools that interview everyone) it is a sign they like you and a positive. Still, I don't think you can say R3 invites have more of a chance than R2 or R1 invites. Yes, you could say the committee only has 10 spots to fill so they only invite 25 people, so you are in the top 25 of R3 applicants, but that still means you have a 40% chance. Those odds are the same as if you applied round 2, they have 400 spots to fill and they invite 1,000 people to interview.

When you add into the fact that there is virtually no cost to the school to bring you into interview, they may be less selective in who they interview R3. They still in theory have the same number of AdCom members available to interview in R3 as they did in previous rounds. You also have to keep in mind that most schools have waitlisted candidates R1 and R2 to whom they compare R3 candidates....and in most cases there is a bias against R3 candidates if there is a similar candidate that took the initiative to apply early.

R3 is not impossible but I think it's safe to say that even with an interview it's an uphill battle.