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Intern
Joined: 02 Sep 2010
Posts: 40

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26 Nov 2010, 01:00
3
The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
.....................................................................................................................................................................
In the given argument the author of the business plan has an assumption that the average consumption of coffee increases with age and even after the age of 60 the consumption remains high.However the average cola consumption declines with increasing age.According to the author both the trends have remained stable for past 40 years.So by looking at these figures the author concludes that the older adults with increase significantly over next 20 years, because the population will be aging over 20 years,which means that the demand for coffee will increase and demand for cola will decrease.
Therefore, the author suggests that the company should consider transferring investements form Cola to Early Bird coffee.

The argument is flawed for several reasons as the author does not show relevant statstics that the consumption of coffee increases with age and consumption of cola decreases with age.The author should provide enough information for us to know that from which source the information was gathered.It might be possible that the numbers what the author is reffering to is collected form one area or just one city.So that does not assume that it implies to all the cities and all the countries that the consumption of cola will decrease with age and consumption of cofffee will increase with age.

The author also quotes that the trends have been stable for past 40 years, but agian the author does not cite relevant source that according to which study the trends are shown; is it an international firm that that conducted the study or is it just an local company who had gathered all the data and drawn conclusion.The author also falis to cite that how many people were included in the study.There can be a possiblity that the study is just based on 100 people.Whereas we need more people to give their views.

Also the author fails to give information that the company is targetting at a local city or many other countries.The author should give proper information so that the reader can know that what is companys target location.There can be a possiblity that the trend that author mentions Increase in consumption of coffee with age and decrease in consumption of cola with age might be relevant to just one city.If the company wishes to expand its business into ather location this trend might not be valid at all.

The author also falsely assumes that the trend will continue that old people will continue their intake of coffee even after the age of 60,there can be a possiblity that due to health awaress campaings the Older people might consider to leave coffee and switch to some other herbal option.For this reason the authors assumption that this trend will continue that people are aging is not reasonable.

In order to validate the argument the author must provide relevant statistics to show that how many people were involved in teh survey and where the survey was exactly conducted.Also the author must reveal that the company targets local customers or international customers.Else the company can run into husge lossess, because there is always a possibility that in one city people might reduce their consumption of cola and increase their consumption of coffee with age.But in other cities or countries this trend might not be vaild at all.
Manager
Status: Starting Work
Affiliations: Chartered Engineer
Joined: 20 Jun 2010
Posts: 194
Location: United Arab Emirates
Schools: INSEAD - Class of 2013
WE: Business Development (Energy and Utilities)

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26 Nov 2010, 01:53
rite2deepti wrote:
The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
.....................................................................................................................................................................
In the given argument the author of the business plan has an assumption that the average consumption of coffee increases with age and even after the age of 60 the consumption remains high.However the average cola consumption declines with increasing age.According to the author both the trends have remained stable for past 40 years.So by looking at these figures the author concludes that the older adults with increase significantly over next 20 years, because the population will be aging over 20 years,which means that the demand for coffee will increase and demand for cola will decrease.
Therefore, the author suggests that the company should consider transferring [highlight]investements[/highlight]form Cola to Early Bird coffee.
[highlight]No point restating the whole argument. Make a brief gist of the argument and start off your analysis. The introductory sentence should contain the points you will be discussing below.[/highlight]
[highlight]Use introductory words like @firstly,first,one reason@[/highlight]The argument is flawed for several reasons as the author does not show relevant [highlight]statstics[/highlight] that the consumption of coffee increases with age and consumption of cola decreases with age.The author should provide enough information for us to know that from which source the information was gathered.It might be possible that the numbers what the author is [highlight]reffering[/highlight] to is collected form one area or just one city.So that does not assume that it implies to all the cities and all the countries that the consumption of cola will decrease with age and consumption of [highlight]cofffee[/highlight] will increase with age.
[highlight]Good point, but your sentence lacks continuity. The flow of language can be a lot more lucid and free.[/highlight]

The author also quotes that the trends have been stable for past 40 years, but [highlight]agian[/highlight] the author does not cite relevant source that [highlight]according to which study the trends are shown[/highlight]; is it an international firm that that conducted the study or is it just an local company who had gathered all the data and drawn conclusion.The author also [highlight]falis[/highlight] to cite that how many people were included in the study.There can be a [highlight]possiblity[/highlight]that the study is just based on 100 people.Whereas we need more people to give their views.

[highlight]Another good flaw highlighted but the language needs to be more lucid. Try using strong language as "should, will " instead of "can,may".[/highlight]

Also the author fails to give information that the company is [highlight]targetting[/highlight] at a local city or many other countries.The author should give proper information so that the reader can know [highlight]that what is companys target location.[/highlight]There can be a [highlight]possiblity[/highlight]that the trend that author mentions Increase in consumption of coffee with age and decrease in consumption of cola with age might be relevant to just one city.If the company wishes to expand its business into [highlight]ather[/highlight] location this trend might not be valid at all.
[highlight]The point is not stated clearly.[/highlight]

The author also falsely assumes that the trend will continue that old people will continue their intake of coffee even after the age of 60,there can be a [highlight]possiblity that due to health awaress campaings[/highlight] the Older people might consider to leave coffee and switch to some other herbal option.For this reason the authors assumption that this trend will continue that people are aging is not reasonable.

In order to validate the argument the author must provide relevant statistics to show that how many people were involved in [highlight]teh[/highlight] survey and where the survey was exactly conducted.Also the author must reveal that the company targets local customers or international customers.Else the company can run into [highlight]husge lossess,[/highlight] because there is always a possibility that in one city people might reduce their consumption of cola and increase their consumption of coffee with age.But in other cities or countries this trend might not be [highlight]vaild[/highlight] at all.

The essay is well structured, but you discuss too many points with too little detail. Choose your 3 strong points and discuss in depth about those 3-4 points. In the above essay, you very clearly point out the flaws, but fail to discuss those flaws in more detail. Try using strong language as "should,will" instead of can,may.

The introduction needs to to give a brief insight into what you will be your points but not repeating what the argument states.

There are many spelling mistakes and many structural errors in your sentence. The language is sometimes not conveying your idea clearly. Try using simple lucid sentences.

My rating is as follows:

Structure: 5( Good structure. It matters a lot. on the real GMAT my issue topic was very boring and I didn't have many good points, but made sure the essay was well structured. Was surprised to end up with a 6 on AWA.)
Content : 4 ( Good flaws pointed out, but need more detail to your arguments)
Style : 3 (Lot of spelling and grammatical errors. Do some proof reading. )

Overall :4

You can easily get a 6 on the exam with your structured method of arguing. Work on your content and grammar.
Intern
Joined: 02 May 2017
Posts: 11

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07 Jul 2017, 11:40
Can Someone please rate my AWA for the same argument:

The argument claims that business plan of the firm is considering to move all its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.
The basis of this argument fails to consider several key factors, on the basis of which it could be evaluated. The conclusion is based on assumptions, for which there is no clear evidence. Hence the argument is weak and unconvincing.
First, the author claims , with the help of a study that the consumption of coffee increases with the average age of coffee drinker , whereas consumption of Cola decreases with increase in age. The author fails to highlight whether this study is reliable or not.
He fails to mention whether the survey that the study did was for a sample population , a town or during a hot summer afternoon. Without any of these factors available and unknown, it is difficult to evaluate whether this assumption is true or not.
The author should strengthen this assumption by providing any relevant statistic or key points of interest that the study used in order to establish the trend. For instance, if the author mentioned , that this study was conducted on a group of unaware citizens who have similar inclination towards coffee as Cola, it would help establish validity of the trend. In the absence of these relevant factors, this assumption is weak.
Second, the author states that over the next 20 years, the older population would increase and so will the increase in demand for coffee.
The author, here, assumes wrongly that even after 60 years of age, people would stick to coffee and not switch to any healthier alternatives. He even fails to consider that within the next 20 years , a new generation would be added to the range of the targeted population. With this new addition, whether the trend will still remain the same or not, it is hard to assess. The author could strengthen the argument if he mentioned that there were no other alternatives to coffee or Cola in the areas that the study was conducted. He could further strengthen the argument, by providing additional factors as to why the population would choose Coffee over Cola. Without these pieces of additional information, the assumption is unsubstantiated.
Finally, the author mentions that on the basis of the trend, and the rise in demand of coffee over Cola, the firms should move all its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. The author fails to provide any kind of relationship between the increase in demand to the success of an investment. It could be possible that even though the demand of Cola is declining with age, the investment could be doing far better than Coffee because of its high performing management. The author could strengthen this assumption, if he provided any trend from a credible valid well substantiated study that, increase in demand directly implied success of an investment as it would lead the share holders to retain their shares longer. Without these additional factors, this assumption is also flawed and unconvincing.
In summary the argument is weak and unconvincing. It could be strengthened if the author better substantiated it or provided relevant facts.In order to assess the merits of an argument, it is essential to have complete knowledge of all the contributing factors. However, as it stands, the argument is flawed and unsubstantiated.
Intern
Joined: 20 Mar 2018
Posts: 5
Schools: ISB '20 (D)

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25 Sep 2018, 22:02
Kindly rate the below mentioned AWA. and Please let me know how can it be improved. Thanks in advance.

The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”

The above investment strategy presented by the investment firm demands that the investment be shifted from the cola industry to the coffee industry mentioning specific companies in each of these industries with no sufficient information to arrive at the success rate of the above strategy. However, this strategy is based on the historical statistics presented in the extract, which is assumed to be unaltered in the future. The argument is severely flawed, since it is based on unwarranted assumptions and thus is unconvincing.

The primary concern that the above argument presents is the generalisation the consumption is the only factor that governs the stock prices and returns and conveniently ignores the other factors such as profits, sales, brand value etc. The statistics presented above nowhere mentions that the Cola industry would be washed out entirely, as there is always going to be a non-adult population in any state, and thus assuming that the cola industry shall produce less returns on investment is unconvincing. Thus, the argument would have been substantive had it mentioned more information on the margins and volume of sales that each of the industry generates.

Secondly, the argument basis its conclusion on the statistics provided above. These statistics have two limitations namely: lack of age group for the Cola drinkers and expectation that the trends of past shall follow. When examined deeply, it is observed that if there is an overlap between the cola drinkers and the coffee drinkers age group, the conclusion arrived by the author shall collapse, as there would be parallel demand for both the industries for a few years, giving no advantage to any one of the industries. The incorrect assumption that the trends that have been consistent over 40 years shall follow in the foreseeable future, leads to an incorrect line of reasoning. For example,There is a possibility of a new trend if the Cola company comes up with a healthier version of their product, which is preferred by coffee drinking adults as well; thus reducing the coffee consumption. A shift in the customer preferences can completely alter the above conclusion. Thus, the investment company shall also present the reasoning behind the trend identified by it to arrive at a solid conclusion, merely stating numbers as facts would only limit the conclusion.

Finally, the investment company provides generic trends of the industry and basis its recommendation on two specific companies from the industry. The underlying assumption that these companies, Cola Local and Early Bird coffee, are representative of the industry and its trends as a whole is not mentioned anywhere. Also, the fact that these companies are comparable in size to calculate their return on investment, is left to interpretation. Thus, making the argument weak.

In a nutshell, the argument/investment strategy presented above is limited by its line of reasoning and assumptions, and is this unconvincing. It could have been clearer, if more relevant information was provided to arrive at the above conclusion.
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