Hey there jwatson,
Well, as you know a lot will depend on the GMAT, but let's start with your work experience. Without the National Guard/Army service, your profile would been good to average. Your school is fine, as your UG grades, and your work experience is pretty middle of the road. Thankfully though you have some amazing leadership in the military service which should propel your profile way beyond where it would normally allow you to apply to. Schools love military people, and they love leadership. Since they also love very high GMATS (
) if you can get that 720+, I think that you are in the running for any school out there (although H/S/W might still be a bit of a challenge). You can do much better than Carlson, and I would urge to take your shot at better schools before making a decision to attend an MBA, and this is even if you do not improve upon your GMAT score!
So go ahead and take that GMAT, and get back to us with a bit more info about your leadership and achievements. You have a very nice, very strong profile, and with good essays and a good school list, you should see some nice results.
Best,
JF