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# Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate

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CR Forum Moderator
Joined: 25 Apr 2018
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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate  [#permalink]

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25 Nov 2018, 07:53
2
8
00:00

Difficulty:

85% (hard)

Question Stats:

50% (01:49) correct 50% (01:43) wrong based on 199 sessions

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Project CR Butler:Day 20:Critical Reasoning (CR1)

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true. could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author's position that the meteorologists' claim cannot be evaluated?

(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.

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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate  [#permalink]

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27 Nov 2018, 15:32
kindly someone please post OE of this
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate  [#permalink]

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27 Nov 2018, 19:39
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shubham2312 wrote:
kindly someone please post OE of this

shubham2312

The author does not presuppose that precise weather forecasts based on imperfect understanding cannot ever occur, so A cannot be used to argue against the author. Choice C, which says nothing about the quality of the models or their effect on the precision of the weather forecasts, also provides no material for a counterargument. The author's position is consistent with D. The concession described in E is already tacitly conveyed in the author's report of the meteorologists'claim.

However, B can be used to argue that the claim is not impossible to evaluate but actually somewhat plausible, because B indicates that there is a strong correlation between increasing perfection of the model and increasingly accurate forecasts. Therefore, B is the best answer.
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate  [#permalink]

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09 Dec 2018, 04:57
How is B saying that the model can be evaluated . From all that i can understand B says that accuracy in the model is accompanied with accuracy in predictions.
its the same what the argument is saying
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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate  [#permalink]

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09 Dec 2018, 05:56
NCRanjan wrote:
How is B saying that the model can be evaluated . From all that i can understand B says that accuracy in the model is accompanied with accuracy in predictions.
its the same what the argument is saying

Hi NCRanjan

Now the passage states that as per the mets if an accurate mathematical model is possible, then weather forecast with real precision is also possible. Now, as any inadequate forecast would be blamed on imperfection in model, the statement made my met is an idle boast

Pre-thinking:- In what scenario can an imperfection in forecast not be blamed on the accuracy of the model.

So, as per the second choice - significant gains in mathematical models is accompanied by an increase in the weather forecast. Now, if there is an inadequate forecast we cannot blame it on an inaccurate mathematical model.

Please revert in case of any other question.
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate &nbs [#permalink] 09 Dec 2018, 05:56
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