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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat

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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 21 Jan 2019, 05:21
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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true. could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author's position that the meteorologists' claim cannot be evaluated?


(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.

(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.

(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.

(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.

(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.


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Originally posted by gmat1393 on 25 Nov 2018, 08:53.
Last edited by Bunuel on 21 Jan 2019, 05:21, edited 1 time in total.
Renamed the topic and edited the question.
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 10 Jan 2019, 06:07
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gmat1393 wrote:

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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true. could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author's position that the meteorologists' claim cannot be evaluated?

(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.


Meteorologists: If we could design an accurate model, we could forecast weather with precision.
Author: You cannot evaluate this. Inadequate forecast will be blamed on model.

The author is saying that meteorologists claim that give us an adequate model and we will forecast weather with precision cannot be evaluated. Who can say what an adequate model is. For every forecast that is not correct, the meteorologists will just blame the model.

We want to argue against the author's position. So we want to say that the claim can be evaluated. You can measure whether the model is adequate or not. Let's look for something that helps us.

(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.
Certain data config can serve as basis for precise weather forecasts. But we want to find whether we can have an "adequate model". This it does not mention. Not correct.

(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.
Better models lead to better precision of forecasts. This is against the author's position. We can evaluate whether a model is good or not. Could be the answer.

(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.
Special models are getting constructed. Doesn't help establish whether we can evaluate models.

(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.
Current accuracy of forecasts is irrelevant.

(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.
Doesn't help us negate the author's position that we cannot evaluate the adequacy of the model. Not correct.

Answer (B)
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Jan 2019, 05:58
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ankur_1988, the key to understanding why (B) is the correct answer is correctly interpreting the question, which is written in a kind of confusing way. Let's break the question down:

Quote:
Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author's position that the meteorologists' claim cannot be evaluated?

  • First, we have the "meteorologists' claim": "if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision."
  • Then, we have the "author's position" about the above claim (as stated in the question): "the meteorologists' claim cannot be evaluated."
  • How does the author reach that position? By stating that: "any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model."

Now we are asked to find an answer choice that could be used to argue against the author's position. So, we need evidence that the meteorologists' claim can
be evaluated. With that in mind, let's go through the answer choices:

Quote:
(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.

Answer (A) provides information about how the mathematical models are constructed, but does not allow us to further evaluate the claim of the meteorologists. Because it does not answer our question, we can throw (A) out.

Quote:
(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.

This answer shows a measurable relationship between mathematical models and the precision of weather forecasts. Establishing this relationship makes it possible to evaluate the meteorologists' claim, because the trend provides evidence for expected future results. Answer (B) is looking good.

Quote:
(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.

Does this answer choice assist in evaluating the meteorologists' claim? We are concerned with weather predictions in general, not with the results of certain catastrophic events. Overall, answer (C) does not provide information that argues against the author's claim. (C) is out.

Quote:
(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.

This answer choice does not specify if modern weather forecasts are more accurate than previous forecasts, or even whether these forecasts are using the mathematical models at the heart of this question. Without additional context, this option does not help in evaluating the meteorologists' claim. Throw answer (D) out.

Quote:
(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.

In the passage, the meteorologists state that "if only" they could create a more complex model, they could predict the weather with more accuracy. So, they already admit that the model is "not now in their power to construct," as written in answer choice (E). The claim that we are attempting to evaluate deals with future models and associated predictions, not with current capabilities. Option (E) does not provide evidence one way or the other on the meteorologists' claims, and so is not our answer.

Answer (B) is correct.
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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 27 Nov 2018, 20:39
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shubham2312

The author does not presuppose that precise weather forecasts based on imperfect understanding cannot ever occur, so A cannot be used to argue against the author. Choice C, which says nothing about the quality of the models or their effect on the precision of the weather forecasts, also provides no material for a counterargument. The author's position is consistent with D. The concession described in E is already tacitly conveyed in the author's report of the meteorologists'claim.

However, B can be used to argue that the claim is not impossible to evaluate but actually somewhat plausible, because B indicates that there is a strong correlation between increasing perfection of the model and increasingly accurate forecasts. Therefore, B is the best answer.
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Dec 2018, 05:57
How is B saying that the model can be evaluated . From all that i can understand B says that accuracy in the model is accompanied with accuracy in predictions.
its the same what the argument is saying
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Dec 2018, 06:56
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NCRanjan wrote:
How is B saying that the model can be evaluated . From all that i can understand B says that accuracy in the model is accompanied with accuracy in predictions.
its the same what the argument is saying


Hi NCRanjan

Now the passage states that as per the mets if an accurate mathematical model is possible, then weather forecast with real precision is also possible. Now, as any inadequate forecast would be blamed on imperfection in model, the statement made my met is an idle boast

Pre-thinking:- In what scenario can an imperfection in forecast not be blamed on the accuracy of the model.

So, as per the second choice - significant gains in mathematical models is accompanied by an increase in the weather forecast. Now, if there is an inadequate forecast we cannot blame it on an inaccurate mathematical model.


Please revert in case of any other question.
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Re: CR - Meteorologists  [#permalink]

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New post 07 Aug 2019, 02:56
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Re: CR - Meteorologists   [#permalink] 07 Aug 2019, 02:56
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