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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat

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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

(B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.

(C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.

(D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.

(E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.


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Originally posted by elegan on 29 Oct 2012, 23:55.
Last edited by Bunuel on 07 Aug 2019, 02:55, edited 1 time in total.
Renamed the topic and edited the question.
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 30 Oct 2012, 04:05
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elegan wrote:
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

(A)

The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

(B)

Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.

(C)

As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.

(D)

Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.

(E)

With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.

-------------------------
Hello,

I'm wondering if you can help me reason through the answer choices, since I didn't know where to start with this one.

Many thanks!


It's certainly a little tricky but this is how you go about solving it:

Read the question: What would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

First of all, what is the meteorologists’ boast?
It is that if they could design an accurate model of the atmosphere, they could forecast the weather with real precision.

We need to cast doubt on this i.e. we need to say that even if they design an accurate model of the atmosphere, they still may not be able to forecast weather with real precision. Focus on this - even if they do get an accurate model, they may not forecast accurately. We don't have to worry about how difficult it is to get an accurate model, the point is that even if we do get it, it may still not be possible to forecast accurately.

Let's look at the options:

(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

It doesn't talk about atmosphere, model, weather or anything related to our question. We don't know how the energy from the Sun affects our variables so this option is out.

(B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.
This says that there is a continuing impact from other sources on the atmosphere. So even if there is an accurate model of the atmosphere, we may not be able to predict the weather accurately because of this impact. This helps cast doubt on the meteorologists’ boast. Answer.

(C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.
This talks about how difficult it is to get an accurate model. That is not our concern as discussed above.

(D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.
This talks about how difficult it is to get an accurate model. That is not our concern as discussed above.

(E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.
Existing models are not our concern here. So this option is out too.
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 07 Feb 2016, 10:39
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elegan wrote:
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

(A)

The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

(B)

Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.

(C)

As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.

(D)

Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.

(E)

With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.

-------------------------
Hello,

I'm wondering if you can help me reason through the answer choices, since I didn't know where to start with this one.

Many thanks!



tough one...
this is a weaken type of question..I thought that, to weaken the meteorologists' boast, we need to find an answer choice that would tell us that it is not the imperfections of the model to be blamed for the inadequate weather forecast.
to weaken this argument, we need to identify an answer choice that would tell about things that can't be predicted or thought of/quantified before they appear. for ex. volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes, solar storms, etc.

A. if we know this fact, then we can implement this information on the model. thus, if we have deviations, then it must be because of the imperfections of the model. - not good.
B - aha, so something that can't be predicted have major impact on the weather conditions. looks good.
C - number of computers needed to run the model is out of scope.
D - what is needed - is out of scope. what if we already have all this data? then definitely, there is smth wrong with the model, since we have everything we need to predict the weather patterns.
E - existing models - out of scope.


B looks good for me.
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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Oct 2019, 21:39
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Boast: if we can design an accurate mathematical model, we can forecast the weather with precision

Critique in stem: this can't be evaluated as any flaw in the model will be blamed on imperfections in it.

Weaken the boast - strengthen the critique?

A - difficult to see the impact this has
B - a number of things can't be quantified - this supports the notion that there are bound to be imperfections in the model
C - this doesn't impact the model accuracy.
D - so? Meteorologists could collect this...potentially
E - its hard to see how the differential in accuracy between the two patterns has an impact on a hypothetical model
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 14 Oct 2019, 19:34
I am still not clear why Option B here is the correct answer. The meteorologist are of view that "if they could design an accurate model then they would be able to predict accurate weather" and option B says " Volcanic eruptions and other processes cannot be quantified. Therefore, it is difficult accurate model." This rather supports meteorologist statement that they cannot create a an accurate model.
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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 14 Oct 2019, 22:02
anc wrote:
I am still not clear why Option B here is the correct answer. The meteorologist are of view that "if they could design an accurate model then they would be able to predict accurate weather" and option B says " Volcanic eruptions and other processes cannot be quantified. Therefore, it is difficult accurate model." This rather supports meteorologist statement that they cannot create a an accurate model.


anc

Meteorologists are not saying that can not create an accurate model of atmosphere. All we know from the passage is that meteorologists believe that they can forecast the weather with accurate precision if they can design an accurate model of the atmosphere. We have to weaken their point that even if they manage to design a perfect model of atmosphere, it may still not be possible to forecast weather accurately.

(B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.

Option B points out that even if there is an accurate model of the atmosphere, it may not be possible to predict the weather accurately all the time because of inaccuracy in quantifying the impact of volcanic eruptions, etc.

I hope your doubt is clear now.
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 29 Oct 2019, 08:14
elegan wrote:
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

(B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.

(C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.

(D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.

(E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.


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gmatt1476,
This is the 221st question of the new GMAT advanced questions book. Can we have the official explanation of this question also please.
Thanks in advance :)
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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 29 Oct 2019, 08:20
GMATNinja VeritasKarishma daagh and other experts,
What is the significance of "with all its complexities" in this question? In the first round of going through the answer choices I rejected B because I thought it's possible that it may come under one of the 'complexities' mentioned in the passage.
Why is it placed there if it has no significance?
Please help me understand this point.
Thanks in advance :)
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Nov 2019, 19:10
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RK007 wrote:
GMATNinja VeritasKarishma daagh and other experts,
What is the significance of "with all its complexities" in this question? In the first round of going through the answer choices I rejected B because I thought it's possible that it may come under one of the 'complexities' mentioned in the passage.
Why is it placed there if it has no significance?
Please help me understand this point.
Thanks in advance :)

Remember that meteorologists say they could forecast the weather with real precision if they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities.

Choice (B) casts doubt on this boast by pointing out processes that have a significant and continuing impact on the atmosphere, but cannot be quantified. If they can't be quantified, then they can't be part of a mathematical model and therefore cannot be lumped in with the "complexities" that these meteorologists have in mind.

I hope that helps!
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 22 Dec 2019, 07:13
RK007 wrote:
elegan wrote:
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

(B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.

(C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.

(D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.

(E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.


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gmatt1476,
This is the 221st question of the new GMAT advanced questions book. Can we have the official explanation of this question also please.
Thanks in advance :)



The question in the new GMAT Advanced Question Book has different options.

Here is the link to the question you are referring to : https://gmatclub.com/forum/meteorologis ... 82455.html

Hope this helps!
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat   [#permalink] 22 Dec 2019, 07:13
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