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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat

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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 29 Oct 2012, 22:55
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Project CR Butler:Day 20:Critical Reasoning (CR2)


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Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

(B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.

(C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.

(D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.

(E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 30 Oct 2012, 03:05
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elegan wrote:
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

(A)

The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

(B)

Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.

(C)

As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.

(D)

Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.

(E)

With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.

-------------------------
Hello,

I'm wondering if you can help me reason through the answer choices, since I didn't know where to start with this one.

Many thanks!


It's certainly a little tricky but this is how you go about solving it:

Read the question: What would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

First of all, what is the meteorologists’ boast?
It is that if they could design an accurate model of the atmosphere, they could forecast the weather with real precision.

We need to cast doubt on this i.e. we need to say that even if they design an accurate model of the atmosphere, they still may not be able to forecast weather with real precision. Focus on this - even if they do get an accurate model, they may not forecast accurately. We don't have to worry about how difficult it is to get an accurate model, the point is that even if we do get it, it may still not be possible to forecast accurately.

Let's look at the options:

(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

It doesn't talk about atmosphere, model, weather or anything related to our question. We don't know how the energy from the Sun affects our variables so this option is out.

(B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.
This says that there is a continuing impact from other sources on the atmosphere. So even if there is an accurate model of the atmosphere, we may not be able to predict the weather accurately because of this impact. This helps cast doubt on the meteorologists’ boast. Answer.

(C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.
This talks about how difficult it is to get an accurate model. That is not our concern as discussed above.

(D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.
This talks about how difficult it is to get an accurate model. That is not our concern as discussed above.

(E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.
Existing models are not our concern here. So this option is out too.
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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New post 07 Feb 2016, 09:39
elegan wrote:
Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.

Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast?

(A)

The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.

(B)

Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.

(C)

As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.

(D)

Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.

(E)

With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.

-------------------------
Hello,

I'm wondering if you can help me reason through the answer choices, since I didn't know where to start with this one.

Many thanks!



tough one...
this is a weaken type of question..I thought that, to weaken the meteorologists' boast, we need to find an answer choice that would tell us that it is not the imperfections of the model to be blamed for the inadequate weather forecast.
to weaken this argument, we need to identify an answer choice that would tell about things that can't be predicted or thought of/quantified before they appear. for ex. volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes, solar storms, etc.

A. if we know this fact, then we can implement this information on the model. thus, if we have deviations, then it must be because of the imperfections of the model. - not good.
B - aha, so something that can't be predicted have major impact on the weather conditions. looks good.
C - number of computers needed to run the model is out of scope.
D - what is needed - is out of scope. what if we already have all this data? then definitely, there is smth wrong with the model, since we have everything we need to predict the weather patterns.
E - existing models - out of scope.


B looks good for me.
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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat  [#permalink]

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Re: Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathemat &nbs [#permalink] 25 Nov 2018, 12:25
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