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Bunuel
Market Observer, Summer 2008: Sheltcorp's sales went up 12.6% between 2005 and 2006. Now that its 2007 sales figures have been released, we can see that its sales in 2007 were 38.6% greater than in 2006. Clearly, Sheltcorp has a winning formula and 2008 sales will be higher still!

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion espoused above?

A. Sheltcorp's 2007 sales figures are preliminary and may change by up to 2% when the final figures are calculated.

B. In 2006 and 2007, at the annual trade show in January, Sheltcorp released popular new products that increased Sheltcorp's sales figures for their respective years, but Sheltcorp did not release any new products at the 2008 trade show.

C. Sheltcorp offers a bonus to its employees based on annual sales.

D. The 12.6% increase in sales is the smallest annual increase seen in the past five years of Sheltcorp's history.

E. Economic forces, rather than individual company actions, are often the largest influence on annual sales figures.



VERITAS PREP OFFICIAL SOLUTION:



Correct Answer: B

As with any weaken question that asks you to predict a trend, look for a weakening statement that suggests the perceived trend was a fluke or that the data examined was in some way atypical. Answer choice (B) suggests that Sheltcorp's actions during 2006 and 2007 were different from those taken during 2008. Sheltcorp's 2006 and 2007 sales were, therefore, not necessarily the product of consistent and predictable performance but rather the side effects of one-time actions. Note that it is possible that Sheltcorp will continue to grow, but by casting doubt on the relevance of the data, we still weaken the effectiveness of the argument. The 2% mentioned in answer choice (A) is not enough to affect the data. Choices (C) and (E) do not give any information that is distinguished by year, and so are irrelevant to a comparison of yearly sales figures. Choice (D), if anything, would strengthen the conclusion.
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