My theory on Fall 2009 applications- any takers?

Question

Allright so here we go- there is a lot of hooplah about how with the market going down, people will start to go back to school and therefore apps will rise making it more and more difficult for people to get admitted to their school of choice. I disagree

My reasons- 1. Firstly, as evidenced by most of the folks out here, there is a strong correlation between time and effort put into the application and positive admission results. That is, someone who starts the application process right now (for Fall 2009) has a much high chance of putting together his/her story, deep researching of schools, networking with alumni and all good things rather than someone who starts the process 2-3 months before deadlines. Who are these people? These are the folks that have already established they need an MBA whether the market goes down or not, whether apps rise up or not..they are (usually) not people who have lost jobs quit their work because of market instability etc and are applying to school as a safety option. 2. All those folks out there who have applied to MBA as a "last-ditch" effort to hedge their risks against an unstable market are NOT going to have the best apps. Why? Firstly, since for most of them an MBA is a backup-option as opposed to their primary goal, I believe that will reflect down onto their essays and the Why MBA? Why MBA now? questions. What does this mean? This means that overall we SHOULD expect to see admission acceptance ratios DECREASE, because the absolute number of applications will increase, however I think the average quality of applications should still remain about the same or even decrease! That would mean that those individuals (and I am speaking to all of you Fall 2009 applicants on GC) who are starting now and need an MBA not as an "escape" or "backup" but as a logical step route should back themselves to have better and higher quality apps and deeper essays as compared to a banker from bear sterns who got laid off and decides to apply to bschool as a safety option. So even though the number of apps increases and the yields go down, those folks who should be admitted should still back themselves up rather than get discouraged.. I understand I have no statistics to back me up, but hey thats my theory! All I am saying is that I think the application process is efficient enough to "weed-out" folks who are applying just for the heck of it rather than as a genuine well-researched natural next step in their career progression. This is obviously a blatant generalization and the i-banker from bear sterns may actually end up at a good school if he is lucky and puts together something good on the spot, but by and large these last-minute market followers should be weeded out by the process. Any thoughts guys?

bsd_lover · Answer

Haha sterny - optimism is a virtue - hold on to it

kryzak · Answer

good argument, though the only flaw in it is that some people have the resources to "throw in" an application in haste with the help of admissions consultants, which will cover up for most deficiencies of a hastily assembled application. I also know enough people who had help from consultants that they put in everything for an application in one week ( :shock:

) and got into UE schools. It won't happen all the time, but those IB folks do have the money to spend on consultants.

sterny · Answer

Haha. I agree guys (bsd and kryzak)..

I guess I am too optimistic though.

I do believe however that if someone is discouraged by the rise in applications even though he/she thinks has strong reason for an MBA and decides to not apply but wait for things to cool down, should think twice.

I always look at the bright side!! Hey, I if I go to school during a recession, by the time I graduate in 2011, things shouold be looking up and jobs should be everywhere, given the cycle usually lasts for 2-3 years!!

Ok..maybe that is the height of optimism

maverick2011 · Answer

I've thought about this too. My opinion is that the majority of people that will be potentially losing their jobs during this period will be "bankers". I'll use that as a general term. Since MBA Adcom are looking for "diversity", this increase in apps from bankers will not negatively affect you (unless you fit into this category). I like to think of my competition as people that are similar to me (job, industry, geographical region)...just my opinion.

kryzak · Answer

sterny, don't get me wrong, I do think that if you really focus and polish your application (with the help of GMATClub, which is FREE

), the increase in applications should not matter to you (unless you're in the finance industry), because you're not competing with the IBs for spots.

kwam · Answer

Many bankers have already lost their jobs, and they will either become entrepreneurs, or try to find another job, or as a last shot do some volunteer work. I know someone who in 2002, when in Brazil the market was a real mess, lost his job, and he decided to go to South East Asia and Africa to help an NGO. Guess what he later applied to 5 schools in M7 in got into every of them.

I'm telling about someone who is incredibly smart and got the money to stay one year out of work and try this movement, but I believe that there are others who can. This case may be statistically irrelevant but I'm just trying to say that there are people that in this situation can benefit from a set back.

If I were one of the guys who got hit right know, I'll do exactly the same way, work until September as a volunteer somewhere, and then try to explore it as a good thing.

I agree with you that the quality of the pool may not increase at the same proportion as the pool itself, but still you have more competition, so be prepared.

Good Luck!

cougarblue · Answer

I respectfully disagree. I think admissions will indeed be more competitive for 2009 for the general applicant pool and to a greater extent the “Finance” cohort. I also believe the Finance cohort could very well increase as a percentage of the class, mitigating the competitiveness of that cohort.

Let me address your main point, which I believe is that those who were laid off will not have enough time as the ultra-prepared b-school applicants.

First, a lot of layoffs are happening right now or have already happened, and it’s still very early in the 2009 application cycle. That means many of the Wall Street-ers (“WS”) (instead of IB since that is too narrowly defined) have plenty of time to pull great applications together if they wish. I don’t really think you gain all that much by having six months to think about this vs. four months. It’s the effectiveness of the time, not so much the amount of time.

Second, many WSers who are laid off now will have time to diversify their experience(s) so not only will they have time to bolster their application profiles, they might be able to effectively switch cohorts, e.g. finance to non-profit, thus making other cohorts more competitive. (The last part may be a bit of a stretch, but I’m just throwing out some possibilities.)

Third, and I believe this could be the most important factor, WSers in general are usually among the most competitive applicants to B-schools. While during the bull market it was more lucrative and commonplace for a lot of WS super-stars to skip B-school and stay at their HF/PE, this trend might reverse during the bear market. These are the kind of guys that will be H/S/W or bust. The increase in super-star applicants could be mitigated by the increase of those laid off who were worst performers. However, there may a similar phenomenon for super-stars in other cohorts as well.

In conclusion, I think the average quality of applications will increase significantly, but, as many have noted, this increase will adversely affect the Finance cohort more than others. Since WS has some of the best and brightest and consequently most competitive applicants, I think B-schools will recognize this and increase the Finance cohort somewhat.

I think individuals should decide to apply to B-school independent of whether applications increase or decrease—embracing, but not underestimating, the competition.

sterny · Answer

Great discussion guys!

cougarblue..i found myself agreeing with your points as well. But what I liked best was your conclusion-

"I think individuals should decide to apply to B-school independent of whether applications increase or decrease—embracing, but not underestimating, the competition."

I think that is spot on and that is the point I am trying to drive home as well. I have some friends who are toying with the idea of an MBA as a career change, and it DOES make sense for them, but they are backing out applying for fall 09 because they don't believe they would be able to compete against the rise of apps...and that I think is not what the applicant should be looking at. The process should be internal to oneself and not dependent on external factors. By no means am I underestimating the competition, I just refuse to account for that factor in my process. I am focussed on just me and my career, and if I start thinking about everything that is against me, I could never move forward

I am aware of it, but I don't want it to influence me or worse discourage me..

As for me, I am a management consultant aiming to do a career change to IB..I feel its the right point in my career and I am backing myself to do well and give it my 100%.

Hey I may end up with all dings, but if thats what it is, then so be it..atleast I know I am true to myself rather than try to "time" the application process and market.

I am aware of it, but I don't want it to influence me or worse discourage me.. As for me, I am a management consultant aiming to do a career change to IB..I feel its the right point in my career and I am backing myself to do well and give it my 100%. Hey I may end up with all dings, but if thats what it is, then so be it..atleast I know I am true to myself rather than try to "time" the application process and market.

My theory on Fall 2009 applications- any takers?

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