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# HOT Competition 2 Sep/8PM: In a recent study, participants were asked

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Re: HOT Competition 2 Sep/8PM: In a recent study, participants were asked [#permalink]
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We have a study presenting treatments with the same effectiveness but these are presented in different ways:

A save 6K die 2K
B save 75%(6K) die 25%
C kill 2K save 6K

So basically the numbers are the same but how they present the effectiveness of each treatment is different.

A. Study participants consistently favored those treatments that offered certainty over those that created uncertainty.

This is not true, given that A and B both offered certainty, and is not explained why they preferred A>B

B. Most or all study participants favored those treatments that saved the greatest number of lives.

All treatments save the same quantity of lives, so Incorrect

C. Some or all of the study participants were confused by the experimenters’ instructions.

Maybe they got the idea and they just preferred their final choice.

D. Participants would have strongly disfavored a hypothetical Treatment D that offered a 25% chance that all of the infected individuals would die but a 75% chance that none of the infected individuals would die.

Actually we do not know if this one holds true.

E. The effectiveness of a treatment and its likelihood of success were not the only factors that affected which treatments were favored by study participants.

Seems correct, it also affects how the numbers were presented.

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Re: HOT Competition 2 Sep/8PM: In a recent study, participants were asked [#permalink]
2
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In a recent study, participants were asked to consider three hypothetical treatments for a deadly disease infecting 8,000 individuals. Treatment A would save 6,000 individuals, but the rest would die. Treatment B would offer a 75% chance of saving all of the infected individuals, but a 25% chance of saving none. Treatment C would kill 2,000 individuals, but the rest would live. Participants strongly preferred Treatment A over Treatment B and both Treatment A and Treatment B over Treatment C.

Treatment A; Save 6,000 individuals, but the rest would die.
"Calculation in mind: Save 6,000. Die 2,000. The possibility of curing 75%, and death 25%."

Treatment B; 75% chance of saving all of the infected individuals, but a 25% chance of saving none.
"Calculation in mind: The possibility of curing 75%, and death 25%."

Treatment C; Kill 2,000 individuals, but the rest would live.
"Calculation in mind: Die 2,000. Save 6,000. The possibility of curing 75%, and death 25%."

As you can see, all three treatments have the same percentage of curing and death, so the different of those is the perception.

The above study results most strongly support which of the following conclusions?

A. Study participants consistently favored those treatments that offered certainty over those that created uncertainty. --> INCORRECT because both treatment A and C present the number of individuals, but participants prefer A than C. Why?

B. Most or all study participants favored those treatments that saved the greatest number of lives. --> INCORRECT through our calculation in mind.

C. Some or all of the study participants were confused by the experimenters’ instructions. --> Nonsense. Cannot be the conclusion.

D. Participants would have strongly disfavored a hypothetical Treatment D that offered a 25% chance that all of the infected individuals would die but a 75% chance that none of the infected individuals would die. --> Tempting, but this choice just presents more treatment. It is not an appropriate conclusion.

E. The effectiveness of a treatment and its likelihood of success were not the only factors that affected which treatments were favored by study participants. --> CORRECT because three treatments have the same possibility of success, but participants still have bias among them because of the different perception.

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Re: HOT Competition 2 Sep/8PM: In a recent study, participants were asked [#permalink]
2
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Quote:
In a recent study, participants were asked to consider three hypothetical treatments for a deadly disease infecting 8,000 individuals. Treatment A would save 6,000 individuals, but the rest would die. Treatment B would offer a 75% chance of saving all of the infected individuals, but a 25% chance of saving none. Treatment C would kill 2,000 individuals, but the rest would live. Participants strongly preferred Treatment A over Treatment B and both Treatment A and Treatment B over Treatment C.

The above study results most strongly support which of the following conclusions?

A. Study participants consistently favored those treatments that offered certainty over those that created uncertainty.
B. Most or all study participants favored those treatments that saved the greatest number of lives.
C. Some or all of the study participants were confused by the experimenters’ instructions.
D. Participants would have strongly disfavored a hypothetical Treatment D that offered a 25% chance that all of the infected individuals would die but a 75% chance that none of the infected individuals would die.
E. The effectiveness of a treatment and its likelihood of success were not the only factors that affected which treatments were favored by study participants.

Conclusion Question.

Premise:
1. In a recent study, participants were asked to consider three hypothetical treatments for a deadly disease infecting 8,000 individuals.
2. Treatment A would save 6,000 individuals, but the rest would die.
3. Treatment B would offer a 75% chance of saving all of the infected individuals, but a 25% chance of saving none. >> Saving 6,000.
4. Treatment C would kill 2,000 individuals, but the rest would live. >> Saving 6,000.
5. Participants strongly preferred Treatment A over Treatment B and both Treatment A and Treatment B over Treatment C.
>> A>B and A&B>c

So we find the conclusion as below.

Quote:
A. Study participants consistently favored those treatments that offered certainty over those that created uncertainty.

All treatments are the same number of people are saved.
Out.

Quote:
B. Most or all study participants favored those treatments that saved the greatest number of lives.

Same as A.
Out.

Quote:
C. Some or all of the study participants were confused by the experimenters’ instructions.

out of scope. Out.

Quote:
D. Participants would have strongly disfavored a hypothetical Treatment D that offered a 25% chance that all of the infected individuals would die but a 75% chance that none of the infected individuals would die.

We do not know the participants may disfavored other treatments such as D.
Out.

Quote:
E. The effectiveness of a treatment and its likelihood of success were not the only factors that affected which treatments were favored by study participants.

This is because each treatment has the same number of infected individuals saved. So there are other factors to consider the effectiveness of a treatment and its likelihood of success. Keep it.

So I choose E.

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Re: HOT Competition 2 Sep/8PM: In a recent study, participants were asked [#permalink]
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Re: HOT Competition 2 Sep/8PM: In a recent study, participants were asked [#permalink]
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