The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea investment firm:
“In recent years the worldwide demand for fish has grown, and improvements in fishing technology have made larger catches and thus increased supply possible: for example, last year’s tuna catch was 9 percent greater than the previous year’s. To capitalize on these trends, we should therefore invest in the new tartfish processing plant on Tartfish Island, where increasing revenues from tourism indicate a strong local economy.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
The argument claims that the Capital Idea investment firm should invest in the new tartfish processing plant on Tartfish Island to capitalize on increasing demand for fish worldwide. Stated in this way, the argument manipulates facts and conveys a distorted view of the situation. The conclusion of the argument relies on assumptions for which there is no clear evidence. Hence, the argument is unconvincing and has several flaws.
First, the argument readily assumes that worldwide demand for fish has grown because last year’s tuna catch was 9% greater than the previous years. This statement is a stretch. For instance, while the tuna catch increased 9%, it is not clear from the argument if the increased tuna met the demand or exceeded the demand. Also, it is not evident whether other kinds of fish caught last year were greater than the previous year due to the improvements in fishing technology. The argument could have been much clearer if it explicitly mentioned further exmples of greater numbers caught for different kinds of fish.
Second, the argument claims that the invest firm should invest in the new tartfish processing plant on Tartfish island where increasing revenues from tourism on the island indicate a strong local economy. This is again a very weak claim as the argument does not demonstrate any correlation between increasing tourism revenue and returns on investment. To illustrate, while the fish caught might be increasing due to technological improvements and higher demand, we cannot rule out the possibility of potential danger faced by marine habitat due to ecological imbalance and global warming in recent years. In fact, greater local investments can potentially damage the local marine ecosystem, thereby reducing the number of available fish. If the argument had provided evidence that investing in tartfish processing plant would consistently lead to good returns without affecting fish population, then it would have been a lot more convincing.
Finally, has the author considered investing in other areas related to the fishing industry, such as marine technological research or supply and logistics of fish transport? Also, has the author evaluated whether other investment firms have considered investing in tartfish processing plant? Without convincing answers to these questions, one is left with an assumption that the claim is more wishful thinking than substantive evidence.
In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing and has several flaws due to the above mentioned reasons. It could be considerably strengthened if the author had mentioned all the relevant facts, such as numbers of different kinds of fish caught, unaffected population growth of fish and other areas of investment opportunity in the fishing industry. In order to assess the claim that the investment firm should invest in tartfish processing plant, it is essential to have full knowledge of all contributing factors. Without this information, the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate.