June 2008 YTD GMAT VOLUME

Numbers through end of July were released.

Registrations:
U.S. +4.85%
Intl +23.12%
Overall +11.7%

Tests taken:
U.S. +6.86%
Intl +21.27%
Overall +11.98%

I've said it every time these numbers come out but I'll say it again - everyone keeps saying wall street layoffs and the US recession will lead to a surge in apps, yet US registrations are only up 4.85%. I just don't see it. However, I do think app volume could be up 15-20% again this year - but it will be due to the continuing trend of increased international applications, not the US recession. When I saw the info on the percentage of international applicants at some schools on other threads I was shocked. It looks like this trend will continue. Most UE/E schools will probably have 50%+ international applications, but I don't think they are willing to go above a roughly 40% international class. That means most of the increased competition will be felt by the intl applicant pool.

One other thought I had, there is a chance that the schools may be overestimating the expected increase in apps. Some adcoms have spoke of 20% app increases, which may not happen. If that's the case, R2 could be easier than R1 as the adcom might reject R1 apps based on expected volume increases then get to R2 and realize that there are not as many applicants as they expected.