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Citing the simultaneous occurrence of manufacturing delays and revenues drop, the argument claims that those responsible for planning in purchasing since they have no raw material knowledge should be move to the department of their expertise – sales department- and leave the role to scientist from the research department. Stated in this way, the argument omits several important elements that must be addressed to substantiate the argument. The author relies on an unfounded casual relationship for which neither fact-based elements nor compelling examples have been provided. Therefore, the argument is rather weaker, unconvincing, and has several flaws.
First, behind the author reasoning there is an unstated assumption that since two events occurs at the same time there are casually related. One cannot deny the fact that simultaneous occurrence of two events may signal a causal relationship, but in this case, it is not warranted. Several outside elements different from delays can be the prime factors of revenues decline. For instance, if during the same period the company reduced its marketing budget, this can be the key driver of revenues drop. Moreover, if could be that during the same time period the company has sufficient inventory to sale serve its clients. In that case the revenue drop root cause could be the inefficiency of the sales teams. Another major element to be pointed out as the driver of revenues decrease can also be the entry of a new competitors in the market of quality issue with current supply. Clearly, the author unstated assumption of causal relationship has no leg to stand on.
Second, the argument has completed ruled out the eventuality that the casual relationship can be reversed. In fact, there are several occurrences in which revenue drop lead to poor planning in material purchasing and therefore delays. To illustrate, let’s consider the case where revenue drop has been so severe that it has deterred the company ability to pay its suppliers in one shot. Clearly, one can expect a delinquency in the supply planning, a situation that will undoubtedly lead to manufacturing delays. For the argument to be compelling, the author should rule out this possibility
Last, contend that manager of purchasing department should be replaced by a scientist from research department. The basis being the fact that purchasing manager has no knowledge in raw material. Once again, this reasoning missed out on important elements. The mere fact that purchasing manager has no knowledge of raw material does not imply that he or she is incapable to plan. Knowledge of material and planning are two separate elements. One can be skilled on one of those and unskilled on the other. Moreover, purchasing manager with business background can have a more pragmatic approach than the theorical approach that is often adopted by research scientist.
In summary, because the argument leaves out several key issues, it is neither sound nor persuasive, and therefore unconvincing. It would have been more thorough or convincing if the author closed the gap discussed above. In order to assess the merits of a certain situation, it is essential to have a full knowledge of all contributing factors.