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nahid78
Bill has a set of 6 black cards and a set of 6 red cards. Each card has a number from 1 through 6, such that each of the numbers 1 through 6 appears on 1 black card and 1 red card. Bill likes to play a game in which he shuffles all 12 cards, turns over 4 cards, and looks for pairs of cards that have the same value. What is the chance that Bill finds exactly one pair of cards that have the same value?

(A) 8/33
(B) 16/33
(C) 17/33
(D) 1/33
(E) 20/33

This is a copy of the following MGMAT question: https://gmatclub.com/forum/bill-has-a-s ... 57417.html
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nahid78
Bill has a set of 6 black cards and a set of 6 red cards. Each card has a number from 1 through 6, such that each of the numbers 1 through 6 appears on 1 black card and 1 red card. Bill likes to play a game in which he shuffles all 12 cards, turns over 4 cards, and looks for pairs of cards that have the same value. What is the chance that Bill finds exactly one pair of cards that have the same value?

(A) 8/33
(B) 16/33
(C) 17/33
(D) 1/33
(E) 20/33


Everyone is forgetting to account for the possibility of two pairs. Everyone says "P(exactly one pair) = 1 - P(No pairs). Does anyone know how to do it with P(Exactly one pair) = 1 - (P(no pairs)*P(2 pairs)?

This is my math.

P(No Pairs) = (12/12) * (10/11) * (8/10) * (6/9) = 16/33
P(Two Pairs) = (12/12) * (1/11) * (10/10) * (1/9) = 1/99

Then I multiplied them both and got roughly 1/198.

I feel like everyone forgets the possibility of there being two pairs. Taking that into account, is this correct?

**EDIT**
I retried this problem. Here is my new math.

"Probability of exactly 1 pair" is similar to getting A - A - B - C in which A,B & C are all digits 1-6.
So the Probability of getting A or any number for that matter is (1)
Probability of matching that same number A is (1/11)
Probability of getting any other number B is (1)
Probability of getting any other number that doesn't match B is C = (8/9)
Hence, (1)*(1/11)*(1)*(8/9)
Then you need to account for all the possible permutations of A - A - B - C which is (4!/2!)
Therefore, Probability of getting exactly 1 pair =
(1)*(1/11)*(1)*(8/9)*(4)*(3) = 8/11

Please let me know if this is correct!!
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Alternate Solution:

Ways to select one pair out of 6 possibilities (1-1,2-2,3-3,4-4,5-5,6-6): 6C1
Now the remaining 2 cards cannot be a pair, so the 1st of them will have 5C1 possibility (since one number is already taken up in the pair cards).
2nd non-pair card will have 4C1 possibility (as 1 is gone with pair card, and it cannot be same as the 1st non-pair card)

But, you also need to consider for colors, so non-pair numbers can have reverse so we multiply by 2.
Hence total ways: 6C1 x 5C1 x 4C1 x 2
And total possibilities: 12C4

Answer: (6C1 x 5C1 x 4C1 x 2) / 12C4 = 16/33
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please some one provide clearly how to fin out exactly one pair. don't confuse us
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