Official Solution: Bunuel
For a large conference, attendees may carry a digital Badge and a venue Access Pass. An attendee has an Access Pass if and only if the attendee has a Badge. In a registry of 240 attendees, exactly 96 attendees have at least one of these items.
One attendee is selected at random. Select for
P(Access|Badge) the probability that the attendee has an Access Pass given that the attendee has a Badge, and select for
P(neither) the probability that the attendee has neither item. Make only two selections, one in each column.
The possible states for an attendee are:
• (Badge yes, Access yes)
• (Badge no, Access no)
The states (Badge yes, Access no) and (Badge no, Access yes) are impossible, because “if and only if” means the two items always occur together. In particular, (Badge no, Access yes) is not possible because we are told that
an attendee has an Access Pass ... only if the attendee has a Badge. So, if someone does not have a Badge, he cannot have an Access Pass, otherwise it would violate the rule that every Access Pass must come with a Badge.
Total attendees = 240.
Since 96 attendees have at least one item, and under the “if and only if” condition this must mean they have both, we know (Badge yes, Access yes) = 96. Therefore, (Badge no, Access no) = 240 − 96 = 144.
Now we calculate the required probabilities:
P(Access|Badge) = 96/96 = 1
P(neither) = 144/240 = 3/5
Answer: P(Access|Badge) = 1, P(neither) = 3/5
Correct answer: P(Access|Badge)
"\(1\)"P(neither)
"\(\frac{3}{5}\)"