US Elections 2008 - Your Electoral Vote Prediction

Question

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GMATClub Wonks and Wonkettes, less than 24 hours to go before the polls open, folks.
Post your predictions below:

I'm calling it for Obama, he takes 311 EVs as opposed to McCain's 227.

Obama takes PA, VA, CO, NM and OH.
McCain takes NC, IN, MO and FL.

+1 from me to whoever comes closest to predicting the actual EV count. 8-)

Electoral Map: https://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html

Electoral Map: https://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html

atlmba2009 · Answer

I am going to state the obvious and call it for Obama, and I am calling it 338-200. I think Obama takes Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Virginia, and McCain sweeps North Dakota, Montana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana.

bostonsparky · Answer

Obama in VA / PA / CO(check the early voting stats) / NH / NM / NV, and NC.

McCain takes at least one of FL / OH, however.

The real races to watch are the Senate in Minnesota(Franken/Coleman/Barkley) and Georgia(Martin/Chambliss). The MN one seems like the only true toss-up.

for the numbers freaks out there, I highly recommend fivethirtyeight dot com, great site esp. for projections.

solaris1 · Answer

I will be pleasantly surprised if Obama wins Florida comfortably. 80% chance of him winning without OH and FL however, according to fivethirtyeight.com.

msday · Answer

I call 329-209. Florida to McCain, Ohio to Obama.

atlmba2009 · Answer

Yeah, I live in Georgia, and Chambliss is very unpopular around here. That race is going to come down to the wire I think and it should be very interesting to see how it pans out. Both Chambliss and Martin have been running ads non-stop in prime-time for the past couple of weeks, and one candidate's ad always follows the other's.

It seems very possible that the Dems are going to get a supermajority this time around.

bostonsparky · Answer

atlmba what do you think the odds of a run-off in GA are? it sounds as if there's a decent chance. It'd be crazy if it ended up being for the 60th seat.

atlmba2009 · Answer

That's very difficult to say, but as Senate elections go, particularly in this area of the country, I would guess that the odds are very good. Allen Buckley, a third contender for that Senate seat has gained popularity lately, particularly with Republicans, and it is rumored that he may just take enough votes from both Chambliss and Martin to force a run-off.

Ntang · Answer

As a North Carolina resident, I'm also watching the Senate race here between Elizabeth Dole and Kay Hagan. It's really tight, but right now, I'm predicting Hagan by a nose.

President Obama will rock it out tomorrow night by 75+ EVs.

Any thoughts here on CA's Proposition 8? That's another must-watch tomorrow night.

Leverandon · Answer

My predictions.

Obama: Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire
McCain: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, anything else that seems kind of close

Senators:

MN: Norm Coleman (R)
OR: Jeff Merkley (D)
NH: Jeanne Shaheen (D)
LA: Mary Landrieu (D)
NC: Kay Hagan (D)
GA: Saxby Chambliss (R)
MI: Roger Wicker (R)
CO: Mark Udall (D)
NM: Tom Udall (D)

Prop 8 will pass narrowly. All of the other CA ballot propositions (except the high speed train one) will fail.

spiridon · Answer

Gmatclubbers, do we all agree to endorse senator Obama

Vote for Change!!!

)))

solaris1 · Answer

I think Al Franken will take Minnesota. Remember this is the state that made Jesse Ventura Governor! They like pseudo-celebrities apparently.

Raabend · Answer

364-174 in favor of Obama. Landside mutha scrunchas.

refurb · Answer

Landslide would be Reagan in 1984:

Reagan: 525
Mondale: 13

RF

Raabend · Answer

Landslide is usually when a candidate crosses the 300 barrier and holds a 5-7+ point advantage in the popular vote. So by those measurements, Reagan had a mudslide, landslide, avalanche, and an Oprah fart all in one. Thats power.

refurb · Answer

Hmmm..... I didn't know "landslide" had a formal definition.

There you go, I learned something else from gmatclub!

RF

Raabend · Answer

Haha it doesnt! Thats just what all the pundits keep saying when asked what a landslide is in a pretty evenly split two party country.

GoBruin · Answer

Obama 322 +PA, Indiana, Ohio
McCain 216 +Florida, NC

Prop 8 fails 53-47%

Senate Race
D-58 R-42
Alaska - Begich (D)
Colorado - Udall (D)
Georgia - Chambliss (R)
Kentucky - McConnell(R)
Mississippi - Wicker(R)
Minnisota - Coleman
New Hampshire - Shaheen (D)
New Mexico - Udall (D)
North Carolina - Hagen (D) -BY WIDE MARGINS!
Virginia - Warner (D)
Oregon - Merkeley (D)

House races
D262-R173

Anti Abortion
Colorado Prop 48 - Fails
South Dakota Measure 11- Passes

kwam · Answer

Obama 311 + Ohio
Mccain 227 + Florida, NC, Indiana and MO

Leverandon · Answer

Sorry, spiridon...I'm a McCain man, but I'm at peace with what I know is coming...

Oh and Ted Stevens loses...but it will be close...closer than it should be for a felon.

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