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Hi and welcome to GMAT Club MyMBAPathPW!

I would start out to say that I agree with your analysis. In particular Kellogg allowed quite a few applicants without scores during the summer of 2020 and that shifted many of their base to a year earlier, accelerating their timeline. At the same time, the fact that the numbers went down last year at some schools is a tad concerning since I have a feeling the volumes were already inflated with deferrals applying one more time and people applying to a greater number of schools since app fee waivers were abundant and score reports were free to send....

Unfortunately WSJ did not dive into the Why's or potentially make any predictions into the future, which would really be helpful to many applying.

Do you have any predictions for this season?



MyMBAPathPW
It's just what it says - applications fell at some schools and mostly compared to the year before.

I think the increases of the year before and this year, at many schools, were less due to the usual countercyclical trend we know from years past and more the result of changes in policy (test waivers) and recruiting strategy (bigger than ever emphasis on recruiting women and minority candidates). For these reasons, competition for admission to the top schools will likely remain high for a bit.
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I do have some predictions based on the observations so far for this year.

I saw a funny article that was trying to reverse the WSJ article and that in reality many schools saw more application - I think that's a good argument and perspective. A number of programs did see big increases in the number of applicants such as Ross - but I feel there are many forces in play and the article that was trying to call attention to the WSJ piece being incomplete was also incomplete in the fact that it did not examine the root causes for ups and downs in applications.

I think more time should have been spent in trying to understand what drove people to apply and also consider the demographics - something that I feel will dominate the next application season is the disparity in demographics. I feel that the WSJ piece correctly picked up on the trends of the US applicants having a lot of options right now in terms of the jobs and career choices and opportunity cost of an MBA is too high for many (there are also psychological reasons involved). At the same time, I feel other countries in the world are in a different economic cycle and have a much different application chances and volumes. I know the article was talking about all applicants, but I feel when things come to averages, it is not helpful to any particular individual and specific profiles/case studies would have been helpful, along the lines of WSJ did, just need more of those.