terp, you haven't submitted your applications yet and you're already sounding like a seasoned admissions consultant!

But I agree with terp06, generally the smaller programs are trickier because each spot they give out requires a lot more thought (which is why Berkeley is famous for taking its time until the very end to send out interview invites and final decisions). If they make a mistake by admitting someone who doesn't fit the culture or program, then the mistake is that much bigger because it's a larger percentage of the class.
With that said, if you spend time visiting the smaller schools, research what you like about it and what you want to do there, and express your passion for the school in your essays, you will have a good chance of getting in. Many people actually don't apply to Haas and Tuck because they're worried about the low acceptance rates, similar to Stanford. That, coupled with Haas liking applicants from non-traditional backgrounds with non-traditional goals, may set you apart if you are not from the consulting/banking industries.
What I'm trying to say is, apply to a school if you like it, and don't worry too much about whether their acceptance rate is high or low. If you are a good fit for the school and can tell a good story of your fit, you will have a good shot.