How many applicants are really in contention?

Question

I was wondering how many people you guys thought are either long-shot candidates or no-shot candidates among the applicants to ultra-elite schools (i.e. HBS, Stanford, Booth, etc.). For example, how many of the 9000 applicants applying to Harvard are not really competitive? 10%? 20%? 40%?

I was discussing this with a friend and I was arguing that only a few individuals that were not qualified would waste the money to apply. Anyways, let me know your thoughts.

Thanks!

2012dreams · Answer

I have absolutely no guess as to the percentage, but after my visit to HBS this weekend for a preview event, of those who are applying this year, I'd say about 65-70% of them seemed competitive, the other 30% seemed clueless and made me wonder how/why they came to the conclusion to apply to HBS.

aj1545 · Answer

That is about what I was thinking it would be. How was the event? You live near Boston? It is hard to get up there from Arkansas but I am going to try to visit eventually.

shadow · Answer

i was at the same event this weekend, and i think the real issue at hand is that none of us knows what HBS (or any top tier school is looking for). on the one hand, youve got a plethora of I-bankers, consultants, etc. etc. with great resumes, great pedigree, pretty heavy community involvement and pretty good gmats who won't get interviewed (HBS only interviews about 20% of their applicants).

on the other hand youve got people like me with no pedigree, pretty simple (relatively speaking) work experience, and decent GMAT who get invites.

there's no real formula for guessing who is in contention. i think most of it comes down to your essays and how you come across in your entire app. using this definition, i'd say that most, if not all potential applicants, are 'in contention' to begin with

2012dreams · Answer

I totally agree about typical pedigree not being a (key) determining factor in competitiveness, but when you have no clue what the case method is or don't understand application rounds and the different deadlines, it leaves me a little puzzled as to how much due diligence you've done in understanding the application process. That, to me, makes for an uncompetitive applicant.

shadow · Answer

to be fair, many people i talked to at the HBS event were VERY early in their application process. a lot of them weren't going to start applying till next year (for entry in fall 2011)... and obviously a lot of the undergrads won't be applying for at least a year or two as well. these people used the event to get a lot of their questions answered and familiarize themselves with HBS. i dont think it's fair to draw conclusions about the general applicant pool from the people at that event.

2012dreams · Answer

I clarified that my assessment was from the people I talked to who were applying this year. Of course I would not expect a clear understanding from an undergrad or someone 2 years out from applying. As someone who worked for the admissions office in undergrad, there definitely is a contingent of about 20% of applicants taking the lines "we have no clear GPA/SAT cutoffs and consider a holistic view of your application" to heart, seems like the same at the MBA level, especially at a behemoth like HBS. Some of the people I spoke with who were applying just seemed to be doing it for the hell of it, and hey, it might work, but I detected a lack of understanding of the b-school process and this is what will probably make or break an application as there is no cookie cutter applicant profile. I feel that this is probably a common theme across the general applicant pool as well, not just the groups targeted by PSD.

aj1545 · Answer

It is unrealistic to think that all the applicants are competitive. I know that the adcoms say that every app has a chance... but that is more politically correct than actually correct. Anyways, I'd say that there are at least 10% of apps that have no shot whatsoever. I now realize however that this question is probably unanswerable so either way I won't blame you for thinking otherwise.

shadow · Answer

when people get into HBS/Stanford/wharton with as low as a 590 gmat... you're right, that does make the question unanswerable. im not defensive about it by any means, but the point remains that what you or i would classify as 'automatic reject' might be viewed in the 'interview' pile by the people who actually matter - the adcom

aj1545 · Answer

The 590 had something or someone incredible attached to it. There are plenty of other apps with low scores and nothing incredible in addition to that that would be automatic rejects to me, you, the adcoms, and anyone else who had any sense.

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How many applicants are really in contention?

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