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06 Nov 2020, 04:58
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Be sure to select an answer first to save it in the Error Log before revealing the correct answer (OA)!
Difficulty:
35%
(medium)
Question Stats:
73% (01:50) correct
27%
(02:12)
wrong
based on 326
sessions
History
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Not Attempted Yet
John wants to win the annual Mayfield raffle next year because he needs the Mayfield raffle’s prize. If he enters more than one raffle next year, the likelihood of his winning one of them would be greater than if he entered only a single raffle. Hence, to have this greater likelihood of winning the Mayfield prize, John should enter several other raffles next year.
The argument exhibits which one of the following flaws in reasoning?
(A) presupposing that a person’s strong desire for a certain outcome increases the likelihood that the actual outcome will be as desired
(B) mistaking for the activity itself the goal for which one pursues that activity
(C) assuming without warrant that a person will be successful if the person engages only in those activities that are likely to be successful
(D) assuming that an event, if it is highly improbable, cannot possibly occur
(E) confusing the likelihood that at least one event in a set of events will occur with the likelihood that a designated event in that set will occur
The argument exhibits which one of the following flaws in reasoning?
(A) presupposing that a person’s strong desire for a certain outcome increases the likelihood that the actual outcome will be as desired
(B) mistaking for the activity itself the goal for which one pursues that activity
(C) assuming without warrant that a person will be successful if the person engages only in those activities that are likely to be successful
(D) assuming that an event, if it is highly improbable, cannot possibly occur
(E) confusing the likelihood that at least one event in a set of events will occur with the likelihood that a designated event in that set will occur
09 Nov 2020, 05:29
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Sajjad1994
This question is a Method of Reasoning question, which requires us to identify a flaw in the reasoning.
The argument concludes that in order to have this greater likelihood of winning the Mayfield prize, John should enter several other raffles next year. This conclusion is based on the premise that if he enters more than one raffle next year, the likelihood of his winning one of them would be greater than if he entered only a single raffle. So, the conclusion is based on confusing one likelihood for another.
The argument does not deal with the desire of the person to win the raffle. It merely states that John needs to win the raffle. The conclusion is based on the likelihood that if a person enters more than one raffle, he will win at least one. There is no connection made between desire and the likelihood of winning. So, Option A can be eliminated.
As stated by Option B, the activity would be entering the raffle and the goal would be winning the raffle. Winning the raffle is not mistaken for entering the raffle. So, Option B can be eliminated.
The argument is not about activities that are likely to be successful in general. The passage mentions that the likelihood of winning one is greater when a person enters more than one raffle. There is no generalization. So, Option C can be eliminated.
Option D is irrelevant since it talks about an improbable event, which is not mentioned in the argument.
The conclusion states that John should enter several raffles in order to have a greater likelihood of winning the Mayfield prize. This is based on the premise that the likelihood of winning one raffle is greater if the person enters more than one raffle. The designated event mentioned in Option E is the Mayfield raffle. So, Option E is the most appropriate option.
Jayanthi Kumar.
