Premise: 50% of homes are now equipped with carbon monoxide (CO) gauges, compared to 25% fifteen years ago.
Premise: The total number of homes with confirmed dangerous CO levels has not increased compared to fifteen years ago.
Conclusion: The large proportion of gauges that produce false readings explains why the number of homes with confirmed dangerous fume levels hasn't increased, despite the rise in homes being monitored.
What must be true for the conclusion to hold?
The conclusion hinges on the idea that false readings from malfunctioning gauges are responsible for the lack of increase in confirmed dangerous CO levels. We need to find an assumption that supports this reasoning.
Analysis of Each Option:
(A) "Thirty percent of the residential carbon monoxide gauges have been installed within the last fifteen years."
Analysis: The timeframe in which gauges were installed does not directly impact the argument. The author is focusing on the effectiveness of gauges (due to false readings), not when they were installed. This option tells us nothing about the functioning of the gauges or how that might explain the constant number of confirmed cases.
Conclusion: This is not necessary for the argument.
(B) "The number of confirmed dangerous fume readings per year in homes with carbon monoxide gauges has increased in recent years."
Analysis: This directly contradicts the premise that the number of confirmed dangerous fume levels has not increased in the past fifteen years. If this were true, it would weaken the argument.
Conclusion: This is not necessary and would actually weaken the argument.
(C) "Not all carbon monoxide gauges report false carbon monoxide fume levels."
Analysis: While it’s true that some gauges must be accurate in order for confirmed readings to exist, this isn’t the core of the assumption. The argument is primarily concerned with explaining why the total number of confirmed cases hasn’t increased, despite the higher number of homes being monitored. The critical issue is whether malfunctioning gauges are becoming more common, not just that some are still functioning properly.
Conclusion: While this is a plausible assumption, it’s not the most essential for explaining why the overall number of confirmed dangerous fume levels hasn’t risen.
(D) "The percentage of malfunctioning carbon monoxide gauges has increased in the last fifteen years."
Analysis: This option is critical because it directly addresses the author’s explanation. The author attributes the constant number of confirmed dangerous fume levels to a “large proportion of gauges producing false readings.” If the percentage of malfunctioning gauges has increased, this would explain why more homes being monitored hasn’t led to a higher number of confirmed cases—because a larger portion of gauges are giving false negative readings (failing to detect actual dangerous levels).
Conclusion: This assumption is necessary for the argument to hold. If the percentage of malfunctioning gauges hadn’t increased, the author's conclusion about the role of false readings would be undermined.
(E) "Properly functioning gauges do not, in themselves, decrease the risk that dangerous carbon monoxide fumes will enter people’s homes."
Analysis: This option focuses on the effect of gauges on preventing CO fumes from entering homes, which is irrelevant to the argument. The argument is about how gauges detect CO levels, not about how they prevent the presence of CO fumes.
Conclusion: This is not necessary for the argument to hold, as it doesn’t address the issue of false readings or confirmed dangerous levels.
Correct Answer: (D)
Why (D) is Correct:The argument relies on the assumption that a large proportion of gauges now produce false readings, and this explains why the total number of confirmed dangerous CO levels hasn’t increased. In order for this to be true, it must also be true that the percentage of malfunctioning gauges has increased over time. If this were not the case, the large number of false readings wouldn’t adequately explain the unchanged number of confirmed cases despite more homes being monitored. Therefore, (D)