Bunuel
The number of serious traffic accidents (accidents resulting in hospitalization or death) that occurred on Park Road from 1986 to 1990 was 35 percent lower than the number of serious accidents from 1981 to 1985. The speed limit on Park Road was lowered in 1986. Hence, the reduction of the speed limit led to the decrease in serious accidents.
Which one of the following statements, if true, most weakens the argument?
(A) The number of speeding tickets issued annually on Park Road remained roughly constant from 1981 to 1990.
(B) Beginning in 1986, police patrolled Park Road much less frequently than in 1985 and previous years.
(C) The annual number of vehicles using Park Road decreased significantly and steadily from 1981 to 1990.
(D) The annual number of accidents on Park Road that did not result in hospitalization remained roughly constant from 1981 to 1990.
(E) Until 1986 accidents were classified as “serious” only if they resulted in an extended hospital stay.
EXPLANATION FROM Fox LSAT
No. This argument says, “There’s a correlation, therefore there has to be causation.” (A happened in proximity to B, therefore A must have caused B.) This is one of the two most common flaws that are tested on the LSAT. I can see this one coming a mile away.
To weaken this argument, I’m ideally looking for an answer that provides an alternative explanation of what caused B. I want an answer that says, “It wasn’t the lowering of the speed limit that caused the reduction in serious accidents, it was something else.”
Anything else will do. Let’s scout for that first, before considering other attacks.
A) Huh? No. We need an alternative explanation. This isn’t an alternative explanation.
B) Same explanation as A.
C) This could be it. If this is true, then maybe the reduction in accidents was caused by the fact that
people just aren’t using the road any more. If that’s true, then there would be fewer accidents regardless if the speed limit was kept the same, or lowered, or raised for that matter. This is exactly what we were dreaming of.
D) Irrelevant. The argument was about accidents that
did result in hospitalizations. Accidents that did
not result in hospitalizations are beside the point.
E) If this is true, then it makes it even more likely that the speed limit did have a helpful effect on traffic accidents, because after 1986, there should have been more accidents classified as “serious,” when in fact there were fewer, which points to a beneficial result from the speed limit change. We wanted to weaken the idea that the speed limit caused the accident reduction, so this is out.
Our answer is C.