Bunuel
The government of Country X recently enacted legislation that eliminated property tax credits for homeowners who purchase solar water heaters. Due to this change, solar water heater sales in Country X, which have tripled over the past three years, will likely slow drastically within the next two years.
Which of the following statements, if true, most weakens the conclusion reached above?
A. The majority of homeowners in Country X do not own a solar water heater.
B. Home energy prices are not expected to change over the next two years.
C. Solar water heaters are known to have less heating capacity than traditional water heaters.
D. Most consumers in Country X who purchased solar water heaters over the last three years were unaware of the tax credit.
E. Economic research has found that solar water heaters are more expensive to keep up and replace than are traditional water heaters.
KAPLAN OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:
Identify the Question Type:The words “most weakens the conclusion” in the stem indicate that this is a Weaken question.
Untangle the Stimulus:The conclusion is in the second sentence: sales of solar heaters will slow in the next two years. The evidence is that solar water heater sales have tripled over the last three years, but a tax credit that was in effect during that time has just been eliminated.
Predict the Answer:In order for this argument to work, the author has to assume that the tax credit was the main reason for the rising solar water heater sales. Otherwise, the elimination of the credit won’t make any difference. The correct choice will attack this assumption. It will suggest that the tax credit was not the main reason why sales of solar water heaters have been rising.
Evaluate the Choices:(D) matches the prediction, and is the correct answer. If consumers of the heaters weren’t even aware of the tax credit, then the credit couldn’t have been the reason they bought the heaters.
(A) just suggests there are still potential buyers of solar heaters in County X. The question is whether the elimination of the credit will affect the chances of sales to those buyers. (A) gives no indication, and is therefore irrelevant.
Similarly, even if the price of energy doesn't go up, people may still want to buy solar water heaters, so (B) has no effect on the argument.
(C) and (E) both tend to strengthen the argument. They cite negative features of solar water heaters, which make it even more likely that consumers will buy fewer of them when the tax credit goes away.
TAKEAWAY: Whenever an author makes the argument that a change in one factor will lead to a changed outcome, she's assuming that the original outcome was actually caused by that factor.