Motorcyclists are told to always wear helmets when they ride their

Question

Motorcyclists are told to always wear helmets when they ride their motorcycles. But helmets only protect riders when they have wrecks, and wrecks occur only once out of every 1,000 rides. Therefore, a motorcyclist would be perfectly safe if he wore his helmet only once out of every 1,000 rides.

Which one of the following employs a flawed argumentative strategy that is most closely parallel to the flawed argumentative strategy in this statement?

(A) My European client calls once a week, always in the evening, after everyone has left the office. I’ll be sure to get his messages if I turn on my telephone’s answering machine once a week.

(B) This sunscreen allows me to stay in the sun 15 times longer than I could without sunscreen. If I apply two coats of it, it will allow me to stay in the sun 30 times longer.

(C) The odds are 1,000 to 1 against winning the big jackpot on this slot machine. If I play the slot machine 1,000 times, I’m sure to win the big jackpot.

(D) Seat belts protect passengers in auto-mobile accidents, but accidents only occur in one out of every 2,000 car trips. Because drivers are in the car the most, they should wear their seat belts most often.

(E) Top business schools accept one out of every 20 MBA applicants. Therefore, someone who wants to get into a top business school should apply to 20 of them.

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Purnank · Answer

I am going with A, Not sure but here is the reasoning.
" Helmets only protect during wrecks. ~ The client calls once a week.
Wrecks occur once in every 1,000 rides. ~ Calls always come in the evening after everyone has left.
Therefore, wearing a helmet only once in every 1,000 rides should be sufficient. ~ Therefore, turning on the answering machine once a week will ensure messages are received."

PranavVyas · Answer

IMO-A
Only option found relatable with given premises and conclusion.

Wrecks occur only once out of every 1,000 rides. Therefore, a motorcyclist would be perfectly safe if he wore his helmet only once out of every 1,000 rides

(A) My European client calls once a week, always in the evening, after everyone has left the office.  I’ll be sure to get his messages if I turn on my telephone’s answering machine once a week.

MrShoes · Answer

I think both A and the question involve a subject making an educated guess about when to do something that will surely produce a result, like wearing a helmet only once in a thousand times to avoid an injury, or turning your answering machine on only one time a week to secure a message.

I am assuming that these both involve fallacious reasoning concerning how probability works.

edit: I wrongly guessed C at first as it both involved misunderstanding probability, but C does not have the element of selecting the proper timing so A does make better sense now. I guess C being engineered as a "distractor" made it a good one that stumped me!

prantorboni · Answer

The question states wrecks occur only once out of every 1,000 rides. Therefore, a motorcyclist would be perfectly safe if he wore his helmet only once out of every 1,000 rides.

So, the flaw to this arguement is that rider knows in which ride wrecks will occur, so he can eliminate 999 other rides. Whereas the question states, once out of every 1,000 rides without knowing in which ride wrecks will occur.

Based on this, I will go with answer choice A, which states, European client calls once a week, I’ll be sure to get his messages if I turn on my telephone’s answering machine once a week.

Answer: A

Shwarma · Answer

Option A

In the question stem: the motorist takes the generalised data and applies it to a specific point (himself) -- the outcome is negative 
So I picked one, which was similar to that.

Option A- the call can be anytime once a week, I will pick up one time only.... 
I felt this is similar to the pick the general stats and apply to one data point. -- the outcome is still negative

Bunuel  can we please know what was the official explanation for this ?

Danny134 · Answer

I was confused between A and C for this but ultimately selected C which turned out to be incorrect. Can someone please explain in detail as to how do we go about deciding A over C.

Bunuel · Answer

OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:

A. My European client calls once a week, always in the evening, after everyone has left the office. I’ll be sure to get his messages if I turn on my telephone’s answering machine once a week.

The flaw in the argument is the mistaken belief that the odds of an event occurring can tell you how often you need to do a certain act. Odds of 1 in 1,000 don’t mean that every 1,000th trip will realize a certain event. It means that an accident could happen in any trip out of 1,000, and you can’t predict which one. The flawed reasoning in Choice (A) is similar; turning on the answering machine on just one particular day won’t necessarily catch a weekly phone call because the call could come on any day of the week. Choice (B) is wrong. The conclusion is mistaken but in a different way from the original argument. It’s about proportionality, not probability. Choice (C) isn’t the same as the original argument because you’re not trying to guess which one of the 1,000 games will result in the jackpot; instead you’re covering them all. That’s closer to wearing the helmet for all 1,000 rides on the assumption that one of them will involve a wreck. Choice (D) is totally wrong because the second sentence is nothing like the original argument’s conclusion; it doesn’t state how many times people in cars should wear seat belts based on seat-belt statistics. Choice (E) is flawed but not in the same way as the original argument. The flaw would be more similar to the original argument if the MBA student applied to only one of 20 business schools because the odds are 1 in 20 of being chosen. Choice (A) is the closest and is correct.

VerbalBot · Answer

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