McGregor: Business book trends often signal the bursting of market bubbles. Real estate titles filled the U.S. bestseller list in 2007, before the bubble in U.S. real estate values burst. And in the 1990s there was a sharp increase in the number of titles about technology stocks before the market in technology stocks collapsed. This shows that when books are written in response to investment trends, the time it takes for them to reach publication is typically the time it takes for a growing bubble to burst.Analyzing McGregor's argument, we see that the conclusion is the following:
when books are written in response to investment trends, the time it takes for them to reach publication is typically the time it takes for a growing bubble to burstThe support for McGregor's conclusion is the following:
Business book trends often signal the bursting of market bubbles. Real estate titles filled the U.S. bestseller list in 2007, before the bubble in U.S. real estate values burst. And in the 1990s there was a sharp increase in the number of titles about technology stocks before the market in technology stocks collapsed.One thing that may jump out at us is that McGregor's argument is a little vague. It mentions real estate titles filling the U.S. bestseller market and an increase in the number of titles about technology stocks "before" market bubbles burst, but it doesn't make clear how long before the bubbles burst many books on the topics came out.
Levinson: You are ignoring the effects that business books can have on business. It could be that business books lead too many people into speculation in particular areas, thus triggering further inflation of a market that then collapses.Levinson's response in a way attacks the vagueness of McGregor's argument.
McGregor says that the appearance of the books and the collapse occur in sequence just because it happens to be that many books on an area of investment will happen to come out soon before a crash without saying how close in time the coming out of the books and the crashes are.
Then, Levinson indicates that the collapses do not occur right away when books come out but actually occur a while after the books come out and are in part the result of bubbles caused by the books.
Levinson responds to McGregor by:This question is Method of Reasoning question, and the correct answer will accurately describe how Levinson's response works.
(A) suggesting that McGregor's position is implausibleLevinson does not suggest that McGregor's position is "implausbile," meaning improbable or unbelievable.
Rather, Levinson suggests that there is a different plausbile way in which the books and the bursting of market bubbles may be related.
Eliminate.
(B) providing a counterexample to McGregor's generalizationLevinson does not "provide a counterexample." Rather, Levinson discusses the same examples but provides a new explanation for them.
Eliminate.
(C) suggesting that McGregor has failed to consider the possibility of a certain causal relationshipThis choice accurately describes how Levinson's argument works.
Levinson says that McGregor is "ignoring the effects that business books can have on business." We see that Levinson is saying that McGregor has failed to consider that books cause certain effects on business.
Then Levinson says, "It could be that business books lead too many people into speculation in particular areas, thus triggering further inflation of a market that then collapses."
Once again, in suggesting that "books lead people into speculation ... triggering further inflation of a market," Levinson is discussing a "causal relationship" between books and bursting of market bubbles that McGregor has not considered.
So, we can see that Levinson's argument does in fact work through "suggesting that McGregor has failed to consider the possibility of a certain causal relationship."
Keep.
(D) arguing that the relationship described by McGregor is not a causal relationshipThis choice is basically an opposite trap.
The relationship between McGregor's and Levinson's arguments is not that McGregor suggests that there is a causal relationship and Levinson says that it's not a causal relationship. Rather, the relationship between the two arguments is that McGregor explains the situation without indicating that there is a causal relationship and Levinson suggests that there is one.
Eliminate.
(E) describing an analogous situation in which McGregor's generalization does not holdLevinson does not bring up "an analogous situation." Rather, Levinson continues to discuss the same situation and brings up a new idea about that situatoin.
Eliminate.
Correct answer: C