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A telephone poll conducted in two states asked respondents whether their homes were cold during the winter months. Ninety-nine percent of respondents said their houses were always warm during the winter. The pollsters published their findings, concluding that ninety-nine percent of all homes in the United States have adequate heating.
Which of the following most accurately describes a questionable technique employed by the pollsters in drawing their conclusion?
A. The poll wrongly ascribes the underlying causes of the problem.
B. The poll assumes conditions in the two states are representative of the entire country.
C. The pollsters conducted the poll by telephone, thereby relying on the veracity of respondents.
D. The pollsters didn’t visit respondents’ houses in person, so no measure of the temperature in a subject’s home was actually made.
E. The pollsters never defined the term “cold” in terms of a specific temperature.
Princeton Review Official Explanation:Here’s How to Crack It:The question asks for a
questionable technique used by the pollsters, so this is a flaw question.
You already know from the question stem that the argument has a serious problem. Your job is to figure out what that problem is. Begin by identifying the argument’s premises and conclusion. Then, use a gap in the reasoning to hone in on the assumption. Because this is a flaw question, be on the lookout for common reasoning patterns.
The word concluding in the last sentence of the passage gives away the conclusion:
ninety-nine percent of all homes in the United States have adequate heating. Why did the pollsters conclude this? Their findings were based on the results of
a telephone poll conducted in two states, in which ninety-nine percent of respondents said their houses were always warm during the winter.
Did you recognize the pattern of reasoning in this argument? Information about one group of people (the poll was conducted in two states) is used to make a claim about a much larger group (all households in the United States). This argument employs the sampling pattern. The standard assumption involved in the sampling pattern is that the sample is representative of the larger population.
Look for answers that call attention to this assumption.
A. The poll wrongly ascribes the underlying causes of a problem.
Underlying causes are out of scope. The pollsters ask whether people’s homes are cold. The reason they might be cold is irrelevant. Eliminate (A).
B. The poll assumes conditions in the two states are representative of the entire country.
This answer expresses the standard assumption involved in the sampling pattern. Nothing in the passage suggests that the households surveyed are representative of U.S. householders in general. Keep (B).
C. The pollsters conducted the poll by telephone, thereby relying on the veracity of respondents.
The information in this answer might betray a weakness in the pollsters’ methodology, but it isn’t a weakness in the pollsters’ reasoning. Eliminate (C).
D. The pollsters didn’t visit respondents’ houses in person, so no measurement of the temperature in a subject’s home was actually made.
Like (C), this answer describes a problem with the poll, not with the argument. Eliminate (D).
E. The pollsters never defined the term “cold” in terms of a specific temperature.
It’s true that the pollsters never defined the term “cold,” but does that represent a flaw in the pollsters’ reasoning? The flaw identified here concerns the poll itself, not the argument. Eliminate (E).
The correct answer is (B).