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The council of Shelbyville, which wants to avoid overly depleting the surrounding forest through exports of lumber, is considering subsidizing the import of certain kinds of wood to offset partly the deforestation. Such a step could actually put the forest in more severe danger, since insects often get into wood and can be introduced as a highly destructive force into habitats where they are non-native. Moreover, in the vast majority of cases in which a lumber-exporting city has become a lumber-importing city, the forest surrounding that city has been wiped out a couple years after the switch.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the argument above?

A. Have lobbyists representing the lumber industry in other cities successfully campaigned against subsidizing imports?

B. Would it be feasible for a town that depends on lumber exports to import a significant fraction of the wood it uses?

C. Did the other cities that switched to lumber importing do so because they had deforested the areas within reach of the city?

D. What proportion of lumber jobs in Shelbyville would be lost from subsidies of lumber imports?

E. Are the other cities that made the switch to imported lumber in similar climates?

Official Explanation



Reading the question: the argument is not exactly airtight; it can probably be attacked in a number of ways. Arguments on Critical Reasoning questions tend to be flawed, since the questions tend to ask us to identify flaws. But any argument, even a good one, is prone to attack, and more difficult Critical Reasoning questions will tend to feature better-constructed arguments.

Creating a filter: The question stem has the classic understated testmaker's language. We can prove by stronger terms and interpret the phrase "what's most useful for evaluating" as what's critical for evaluating. And we have another shortcut, since there's a causal argument here. It's in the last sentence, which roughly asserts that switching from exporting to importing lumber causes a city's forest to go away (presumably because they introduced insects). Our expectation is that there might be "another cause" of the export-import switch, but regardless, we'll look for something on which the argument depends.

Applying the filter: Do any answer choices deal with "cause of export-import switch"? (C) does and (E) might. Choice (C), now that we look closer, is one of our specific expectations; it's a causality flip; switching to imports didn't cause deforestation; rather, deforestation led cities to import lumber. That makes a tremendous amount of sense and, if true, would deal a major blow to the argument, because the truth about other cities would have no connection to the insects.

Logical proof: We apply the negation test. If (C) is negated, cities didn't make the switch to import because they were deforested. That possibility would strengthen the argument by removing a major problem. If we have time, we could confirm that the other answer choices are not material to the argument by considering them in negated form.

The correct answer is (C).
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