Some analysts argue that a military conflict between the United States and China would severely damage the global economy. They claim that because the U.S. and China are the world’s two largest economies and are deeply interconnected through trade and supply chains, a war between them would inevitably lead to a prolonged global recession.Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the analysts’ argument?The analysts argue that a US China war would
inevitably cause a prolonged global recession because the two largest economies are deeply interconnected through trade and supply chains.
A. Many multinational corporations have already begun diversifying their supply chains away from heavy dependence on either the United States or China.
This weakens the most. If companies are already
diversifying their supply chains away from heavy dependence on either the US or China, then the “deeply interconnected supply chains” premise is less true, so the analysts’ claim of an inevitable, prolonged global recession loses a lot of its force. I’d say this most directly attacks their stated mechanism.
B. Previous conflicts between major powers have often resulted in short-term economic disruptions followed by rapid recovery.
This weakens somewhat, but it is a loose comparison. “Previous conflicts” vary a lot, and this does not directly address today’s US China trade and supply chain linkage, which is the argument’s main reason.
C. Several developing economies rely more heavily on regional trade than on trade with either the United States or China.
This weakens a little. Some developing economies being more regionally focused reduces exposure for those economies, but it does not show the global economy would avoid a major downturn if the two largest economies clash.
D. Both the United States and China have strong domestic markets that could partially offset losses from reduced international trade.
This weakens a little. Strong domestic markets might cushion the US and China themselves, but that does not directly prevent global spillovers from disrupted trade, supply chains, and financial confidence.
E. Governments around the world maintain emergency economic policies designed to stabilize markets during geopolitical crises.
This weakens a little. Emergency policies might stabilize markets, but the statement is vague and does not show they would be sufficient to prevent a prolonged recession in a war scenario.
Answer: (A)