Over the past few years, tastes in travel destinations have significantly changed. A recent survey indicated that sixty percent of respondents now prefer mountainous areas for their vacations, a figure that is more than double the preference recorded in last year's survey. Consequently, the Happy Home Group of Hotels has decided to cease operations at three of its coastal resorts. It is predicted that other hotels in tourist spots near these coastal areas will also experience a decline in business in the upcoming years.
Which of the following assumptions is necessary for the author's conclusion about the decline in business at coastal and adjacent area hotels?The argument says preferences have shifted toward mountains, a hotel chain is closing coastal resorts because of that, and therefore other nearby hotels will also lose business. For that prediction to follow, the reasoning needs a
direct link between more mountain vacations and fewer coastal vacations, meaning people switch choices rather than just adding new trips.
A. The increasing preference for mountainous areas as vacation destinations will continue to grow.
Not necessary. Even if the preference stops growing next year, the argument could still claim coastal hotels will decline based on the current shift.
B. The shift toward mountain destinations will negatively impact the popularity of coastal and other non-mountainous tourist spots.
This is close, but it is still vague. “Negatively impact popularity” could mean “less trendy” without actually reducing hotel business. The argument needs a clearer switching mechanism.
C. Tourists choosing mountains for vacations will do so at the expense of visiting coastal areas.
This is necessary. Without this
instead of relationship, the rise in mountain preference does not force any decline for coastal or nearby hotels. People could simply travel more overall or still choose coastal trips in the same numbers.
D. Coastal and adjacent area hotels will not attract sufficient tourist traffic except during peak vacation periods.
Not necessary. The prediction is about declining business due to changed destination preferences, not about seasonality.
E. The surveys comparing preferences for mountain and coastal destinations were conducted among the same or a similar group of respondents.
Not necessary for the conclusion as stated. Even if last year’s survey is not perfectly comparable, the argument still uses the current result and the chain’s decision as the basis for predicting decline. The crucial missing step is substitution, which is in C.
Answer: (C)