The number of smokers in Pastoria declined by 30% during and after a series of anti-smoking rallies. During this same period, the incidence of lung cancer in the 50-55 age group also declined by a similar proportion. However, a later study revealed that in the following years, the number of lung cancer patients increased substantially, along with a corresponding increase in the number of smokers. Clearly, smoking is the chief cause of lung cancer.
Which of the following, if true, most directly contradicts the conclusion drawn above?The passage treats a rise and fall that happens together as proof that smoking is the
chief cause of lung cancer.
(A) The amount of nicotine in cigarettes has increased significantly in recent years.
This does not contradict the conclusion. If anything, it could make smoking more harmful, which would fit the conclusion.
(B) A majority of smokers in the 20-50 age group have not developed signs of lung cancer.
This does not contradict the conclusion. Lung cancer can take many years to develop, and “chief cause” does not mean “most smokers get it quickly.”
(C) The control group used in the study was genetically prone to respiratory diseases.
If the comparison group was already more likely to have respiratory disease for genetic reasons, then the observed link between smoking rates and lung cancer rates could be driven by that bias rather than smoking.
This most directly undermines the passage’s move from correlation to “chief cause.”(D) Smokers above the age of 50 generally have a higher incidence of lung cancer.
This supports the conclusion rather than contradicting it.
(E) There are more smokers below the age of 50 than there are above the age of 50.
This is not about whether smoking causes lung cancer. It just describes the age distribution of smokers.
Answer: (C)