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84% (01:37) correct
16%
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A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a certain candidate will win the next election. If the candidate wins, there is a 60% chance that she will sign Bill X and no other bills. If she decides not to sign Bill X, she will sign either Bill Y or Bill Z, chosen randomly. What is the chance that the candidate will sign Bill Z?
A. 10 %
B. 8 %
C. 6 %
D. 4 %
E. 5 %
A. 10 %
B. 8 %
C. 6 %
D. 4 %
E. 5 %
23 Dec 2011, 03:16
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To solve this kind of questions, it's better to use probability tree. It's a good way to reach the right answer and avoid making mistake. 
prob.jpg [ 18.62 KiB | Viewed 10059 times ]
Attachment:
prob.jpg [ 18.62 KiB | Viewed 10059 times ]
Sovjet
Joined: 21 Jun 2011
Last visit: 23 May 2012
Posts: 17
Given Kudos: 1
Affiliations: CFA Institute (CFA Candiate), Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants (CA Candiate), Chartered Alternative Investments Analysts Association (CAIA Candidate)
Location: Canada
Concentration: Finance, International Business
WE:Research (Finance: Investment Banking)
11 Aug 2011, 22:23
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Fairly straight forward...
40% - Candidate Elected
100%-60% = 40% - Candidate does not sigh Bill X
50% - Candidate randomly chooses between two bills.
These are multiplicative:
40% x 40% x 50%
0.4 x 0.4 x 0.5 = 0.08 = 8%
Answer (B)
40% - Candidate Elected
100%-60% = 40% - Candidate does not sigh Bill X
50% - Candidate randomly chooses between two bills.
These are multiplicative:
40% x 40% x 50%
0.4 x 0.4 x 0.5 = 0.08 = 8%
Answer (B)
