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A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a

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A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 12 Jul 2013, 12:14
1
5
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A
B
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E

Difficulty:

  15% (low)

Question Stats:

78% (01:34) correct 22% (01:47) wrong based on 234 sessions

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A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a certain candidate will win the next election. If the candidate wins, there is a 60% chance that she will sign Bill X and no other bills. If she decides not to sign Bill X, she will sign either Bill Y or Bill Z, chosen randomly. What is the chance that the candidate will sign Bill Z?

A. 10
B. 8
C. 6
D. 4
E. 5

Originally posted by ruturaj on 11 Aug 2011, 21:18.
Last edited by Bunuel on 12 Jul 2013, 12:14, edited 2 times in total.
Renamed the topic and edited the question.
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Re: Probability  [#permalink]

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New post 11 Aug 2011, 21:23
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1
Fairly straight forward...

40% - Candidate Elected
100%-60% = 40% - Candidate does not sigh Bill X
50% - Candidate randomly chooses between two bills.

These are multiplicative:

40% x 40% x 50%
0.4 x 0.4 x 0.5 = 0.08 = 8%

Answer (B)
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Re: Probability  [#permalink]

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New post 11 Aug 2011, 22:38
assume 0.5 for y or z just like heads or tails for a coin.

hence, 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.5 = 0.08 or 8%

B it is.
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Re: Probability  [#permalink]

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New post 23 Dec 2011, 02:16
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To solve this kind of questions, it's better to use probability tree. It's a good way to reach the right answer and avoid making mistake.
Attachment:
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Re: Probability  [#permalink]

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New post 23 Dec 2011, 22:51
2/5*(2/5)/2=.08=8%
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Re: A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a  [#permalink]

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New post 22 Oct 2016, 09:50
ruturaj wrote:
A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a certain candidate will win the next election. If the candidate wins, there is a 60% chance that she will sign Bill X and no other bills. If she decides not to sign Bill X, she will sign either Bill Y or Bill Z, chosen randomly. What is the chance that the candidate will sign Bill Z?

A. 10
B. 8
C. 6
D. 4
E. 5

Chance of winning the election is 2/5

Chance of winning the election and signing Bill X is 2/5*3/5 => 6/25

Chance of winning the election and not signing Bill X is 2/5*2/5 => 4/25

Chance of winning the election and not signing Bill X and selecting either Bill Y or Bill Z is 1/2*2/5*2/5 => 2/25 = 2/25*100 = 8

Hence answer will be (B)

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A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a  [#permalink]

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New post 02 Jan 2017, 04:59
40% if win * 40% if choose other than X * 50% if choose Z = 8%. Too easy :D
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Re: A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a  [#permalink]

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New post 08 Jul 2017, 22:47
Choosing a smart number 100 can also help?? Is that a correct way ??
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Re: A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a  [#permalink]

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New post 04 Jul 2018, 18:32
ruturaj wrote:
A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a certain candidate will win the next election. If the candidate wins, there is a 60% chance that she will sign Bill X and no other bills. If she decides not to sign Bill X, she will sign either Bill Y or Bill Z, chosen randomly. What is the chance that the candidate will sign Bill Z?

A. 10
B. 8
C. 6
D. 4
E. 5


The candidate will win with 40% = 2/5 probability.

After she wins, she will sign Bill X with 60% = 3/5 probability; therefore, she has a 40% = 2/5 chance of signing other bills. Since she will sign either Bill Y or Bill Z with an equal chance, she has a 50% = 1/2 probability of signing Bill Z. Therefore, if she is elected, the probability she will sign Bill Z is

2/5 x 2/5 x 1/2 = 2/25 = 8/100 = 8%.

Answer: B
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Re: A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a  [#permalink]

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New post 10 Sep 2018, 07:04
ruturaj wrote:
A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a certain candidate will win the next election. If the candidate wins, there is a 60% chance that she will sign Bill X and no other bills. If she decides not to sign Bill X, she will sign either Bill Y or Bill Z, chosen randomly. What is the chance that the candidate will sign Bill Z?

A. 10
B. 8
C. 6
D. 4
E. 5


Dear Moderator,

The answer choices should be in percentage. Hope you will do the needful. Thank you.
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Re: A polling company reports that there is a 40% chance that a &nbs [#permalink] 10 Sep 2018, 07:04
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