Key concept being tested: Conditional probability with overlapping percentage ranges — specifically calculating probabilities within a subgroup, not the full population.
The trap that gets most people: the problem says two students are chosen from the group who scored at least 8. Many students compute the probability using all students as the denominator (1,000 or 100), which gives the wrong answer. The denominator must be only the at-least-8 subgroup.
Step 1 — Map out the grade distribution using 100 students (cleaner numbers).
- At least 8 (grades 8, 9, or 10): 50 students
- At least 9 (grades 9 or 10): 30 students
- Exactly 10: 10 students
- Exactly 9: 30 - 10 = 20 students
- Exactly 8: 50 - 30 = 20 students
Step 2 — Identify the selection pool.
Two students are chosen from the at-least-8 group: 50 students total.
Step 3 — Count the favorable outcomes.
We want exactly one score-9 student AND one score-10 student.
Ways to pick 1 from the 20 score-9 students x 1 from the 10 score-10 students:
20 x 10 = 200 favorable pairs
Step 4 — Count total possible outcomes.
Choose 2 from 50: C(50, 2) = (50 x 49)/2 = 1,225
Step 5 — Calculate probability.
P = 200/1,225 = 8/49 = approx 0.163 = approx 0.16
Answer: E
Why C(50,2) and not 50 x 49? Because the order doesn't matter — "Student A scores 9, Student B scores 10" is the same selection as the reverse. Using permutations here (50 x 49 = 2,450) gives 200/2,450 = 0.08, which is option C — a classic trap answer.
Takeaway: When a probability problem restricts the selection to a subgroup, always reset your denominator to that subgroup's size, and ask yourself whether order matters before deciding between combinations and permutations.
— Kavya | 725 (99th percentile), GMAT Focus Edition