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Peterparker2
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Good question, and this is exactly the spot where the logic trips people up.

The issue with the 7/13 approach is the multiplying by 7 at the end. That's double-counting.

When you pick the first sock, you're equally likely to grab any of the 14 socks. That first pick already covers all 7 pairs. You haven't restricted yourself to one particular pair. So the probability of matching on the second pick is just: given whatever you grabbed first, what are the chances the second sock matches it? There's 1 matching sock left out of 13 remaining. That's 1/13.

The 14/14 × 1/13 approach works exactly because the 14/14 already sweeps over all 7 pair types. No need to multiply by 7 again.

Where the ×7 logic breaks down: if you enumerate by pair type, each term looks like P(both socks from pair k) = (2/14) × (1/13) = 2/182. Summing over all 7 pairs: 7 × (2/182) = 14/182 = 1/13. You do multiply by 7, but you apply it to the (2/14) term, not to the whole 1/13. Your approach multiplies the 1/13 by 7, which is the error.

Think of it this way: once you know which sock you grabbed first, the pair is already determined. The probability of the second sock matching is 1/13 regardless of which of the 7 pairs you landed on. Multiplying 1/13 by 7 implies you can match 7 different ways after picking the first sock, which isn't true.

Answer is A, 1/13.

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Thank you for the reply Edskore. My thought process was that since 14/14 × 1/13 is meant for one pair then multiplying by 7 counts for all the pair. Really hard time understanding why we didn't multiply with 7
Edskore
Good question, and this is exactly the spot where the logic trips people up.

The issue with the 7/13 approach is the multiplying by 7 at the end. That's double-counting.

When you pick the first sock, you're equally likely to grab any of the 14 socks. That first pick already covers all 7 pairs. You haven't restricted yourself to one particular pair. So the probability of matching on the second pick is just: given whatever you grabbed first, what are the chances the second sock matches it? There's 1 matching sock left out of 13 remaining. That's 1/13.

The 14/14 × 1/13 approach works exactly because the 14/14 already sweeps over all 7 pair types. No need to multiply by 7 again.

Where the ×7 logic breaks down: if you enumerate by pair type, each term looks like P(both socks from pair k) = (2/14) × (1/13) = 2/182. Summing over all 7 pairs: 7 × (2/182) = 14/182 = 1/13. You do multiply by 7, but you apply it to the (2/14) term, not to the whole 1/13. Your approach multiplies the 1/13 by 7, which is the error.

Think of it this way: once you know which sock you grabbed first, the pair is already determined. The probability of the second sock matching is 1/13 regardless of which of the 7 pairs you landed on. Multiplying 1/13 by 7 implies you can match 7 different ways after picking the first sock, which isn't true.

Answer is A, 1/13.

---
Founder at edskore.com | Try free adaptive diagnostic tests
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GMATNinja Bunuel ttp bb ScottTargetTestPrep VibhuAnurag Can anyone help me out?
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Hi Peterparker2

In a box, 7 different pairs of socks were kept. Two socks were chosen at random – What is the probability that a pair was chosen?

Typical Approach to probability question: Find the sample space. Find the favorable outcomes. Ans: Favorable/Samplespace.

Sample space is 14C2. Favorable outcomes is 7.

In your approach

It becomes difficult to imagine or solve out what is going wrong when the number is high.

lets start by taking smaller numbers and replicate the same questions

. Lets say we have 2 difernet pairs and we have to choose two socks such a pair is selected.
1st pair is Aa
2nd pair is Bb


Correct ans: 2/6 = 1/3.
Ordering does not matter
Aa; AB; Ab;
aB; ab
Bb.


now what does 4/4 * 1/3 mean is that there are total 12 outcomes where ordering of the pair matters.

Aa
aA
Bb
bB



When we do 4/4 = 1st position can be any 4 = A,a,B,b
2nd position is specific to that pair; 1/3.

Here ; you are considering all the possible.


Hope this helps.


Peterparker2
GMATNinja Bunuel ttp bb ScottTargetTestPrep VibhuAnurag Can anyone help me out?
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