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04 Apr 2016, 13:16
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Hi, please read and provide feedback for my AWA (thanks in advance 
)
ESSAY QUESTION:
The following appeared in a trade publication for the insurance industry:
“Each generation of Americans has lived longer than the ones preceding it, as the national life expectancy has approached 80 years old in recent years. The progress of medical technology shows no sign of abating. Therefore, we can confidently predict that most children born in America in the next decade will live past the age of ninety.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
MY RESPONSE:
The argument states that most children in America in next decade will live longer than ninety years and the reason is that medical technology is continually improving and each generation of America has lived longer than its predecessor. Stated in this way, the argument lacks certain key factors on the basis of which it could be evaluated. It stands on some questionable assumptions for which there are no clear evidences. Hence, the argument is weak and unconvincing.
First, the argument readily believes that medical technology is the reason for the increased lifespans of people in America. This argument is a stretch as the argument fails to consider that there could be other important reasons for the increased lifespans of Americans. For example, healthy lifestyle choice and increased awareness among people regarding various major illnesses contributing to death toll could be major reasons which may have improved the mortality rate of Americans. If the argument could consider and eliminate these other factors, then the argument could have been a lot more strengthened.
Second, the argument claims that the life expectancy rate of Americans will continue to increase in the future. This is again a very weak and unsubstantiated claim as the argument fails to take into consideration the effect of other factors which could reverse or change this trend. To illustrate, a major breakout of an epidemic or a devastating natural disaster is always a possibility which could kill a major part of a population hence, decreasing the overall life expectancy of the population. The argument could have been more appealing if the author had qualified his claim by considering the above stated factors.
Finally, the argument concludes that children in next decade will live past ninety but fails to interpret that the increased life expectancy is a figure which is the average of life expectancy of the whole population. This means that there could be some members of the population who live well above ninety years and others who may live much less than 90 years. For example, half of the population lives an average of 100 years and other half lives an average of 80 years. Hence, this does not mean that majority of the population is living above 90 years although the resultant life expectancy of whole population is above 90. Hence, this is also a weak claim.
In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing and has several flaws. It could be considerably strengthened if the the author had mentioned the relevant factors as mentioned above. For accessing the merits of a situation, full knowledge of all the contributing factors is required. Without this information, the argument stands unsubstantiated and open to debate.
-------------------------------------------
)ESSAY QUESTION:
The following appeared in a trade publication for the insurance industry:
“Each generation of Americans has lived longer than the ones preceding it, as the national life expectancy has approached 80 years old in recent years. The progress of medical technology shows no sign of abating. Therefore, we can confidently predict that most children born in America in the next decade will live past the age of ninety.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
MY RESPONSE:
The argument states that most children in America in next decade will live longer than ninety years and the reason is that medical technology is continually improving and each generation of America has lived longer than its predecessor. Stated in this way, the argument lacks certain key factors on the basis of which it could be evaluated. It stands on some questionable assumptions for which there are no clear evidences. Hence, the argument is weak and unconvincing.
First, the argument readily believes that medical technology is the reason for the increased lifespans of people in America. This argument is a stretch as the argument fails to consider that there could be other important reasons for the increased lifespans of Americans. For example, healthy lifestyle choice and increased awareness among people regarding various major illnesses contributing to death toll could be major reasons which may have improved the mortality rate of Americans. If the argument could consider and eliminate these other factors, then the argument could have been a lot more strengthened.
Second, the argument claims that the life expectancy rate of Americans will continue to increase in the future. This is again a very weak and unsubstantiated claim as the argument fails to take into consideration the effect of other factors which could reverse or change this trend. To illustrate, a major breakout of an epidemic or a devastating natural disaster is always a possibility which could kill a major part of a population hence, decreasing the overall life expectancy of the population. The argument could have been more appealing if the author had qualified his claim by considering the above stated factors.
Finally, the argument concludes that children in next decade will live past ninety but fails to interpret that the increased life expectancy is a figure which is the average of life expectancy of the whole population. This means that there could be some members of the population who live well above ninety years and others who may live much less than 90 years. For example, half of the population lives an average of 100 years and other half lives an average of 80 years. Hence, this does not mean that majority of the population is living above 90 years although the resultant life expectancy of whole population is above 90. Hence, this is also a weak claim.
In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing and has several flaws. It could be considerably strengthened if the the author had mentioned the relevant factors as mentioned above. For accessing the merits of a situation, full knowledge of all the contributing factors is required. Without this information, the argument stands unsubstantiated and open to debate.
-------------------------------------------
17 Jun 2018, 07:03
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