The following appeared as part of a campaign to sell advertising time on a local radio station to local businesses:
“The Cumquat Café began advertising on our local radio station this year and was delighted to see its business increase by 10 percent over last year’s totals. Their success shows you how you can use radio advertising to make your business more profitable.” Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
The argument concludes that The Cumquat Cafe’s success demonstrates how local businesses can leverage radio advertising to increase profit. The author supports the argument by listing the Cumquat Cafe as an example and explaining how the Cafe was delighted to see its business increase by 10% over the last year. However, the premises are unable to justify the weak conclusion. The argument is rendered inconclusive because of fallacious assumptions, ignored factors, and an over generalization.
Firstly, the argument is based on fallacious assumptions. Specifically, it assumes that the 10% increase in Cumquat Cafe’s business directly translates into profit. The author never mentions exactly what increased by 10%. Perhaps Cumquat Cafe experienced an increase of 10% in revenue. However, since Cumquat Cafe spent more of their budget on a radio advertisement, they could have in fact experienced a decline in profit if the 10% increase in business did not offset the costs. Therefore, the argument is based on faulty assumptions and is subsequently not logically strong.
Secondly, the argument fails to consider factors that can affect the argument in certain ways. For instance, the assumption that Cumquat Cafe was ecstatic by its business increase neglects to consider that there may be other causes outside of the radio advertisement that contributed to the increase. Cumquat Cafe may have used other marketing strategies that produced more quantifiable results like those of digital advertising in which Cumquat Cafe can more obviously track their return on investment. The argument ignores these factors and is thus weak.
Lastly, the argument creates an analogy between Cumquat Cafe’s success and all local businesses. This is an over generalization as there are many types of local businesses and Cumquat Cafe represents just one type. Further, the argument lists Cumquat Cafe as its only example. This casts doubt as to whether radio advertising can be a successful marketing strategy for other businesses since it is not known how many other businesses achieved positive results. Consequently the argument is based on a poor analogy and insufficient evidence.
Hence, it can be reasoned that the argument’s conclusion that local businesses can leverage radio advertising to increase profit is ill-supported by the premises cited namely The Cumquat Cafe’s excitement to see their business increase by 10% in the past year. The main reasons for the incoherencies in the argument are the fallacious assumptions, ignored factors, and over generalizations. However, the argument can be strengthened to some extent by providing a more clear understanding of what part of Cumquat Cafe’s business increased, showing that Cumquat Cafe was in fact satisfied with the radio advertisement’s performance, and listing more examples of companies that have experienced success with radio advertisements. In spite of the improvements, the argument is still inconclusive.