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The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center:
“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by its members. Therefore, in order to increase membership in Take Heart, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
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The management of the Take Heart Fitness Center is suggesting that the center should add new recreational facilities in the coming years to increase membership. This conclusion is solely based on the reported increase in the use of the new swimming pool by the members. Not only is this line of reasoning flawed, but the argument also makes several uncorroborated assumptions that must be addressed.
Firstly, the argument only states that there is an increase in the number of members using the new swimming facility – it does not discuss if there has been any increase in the total memberships due to the new pool. If the overall membership of the fitness center has remained unchanged in the months after the opening, the new swimming pool may not be adding any value, as originally expected. Therefore, the argument’s prime evidence, stated this way, presents an oversimplified and misleading picture.
Secondly, not only is the conclusion based on the increase of a very specific metric, but it also fails to clearly explain if similar results can be achieved for other use cases. The argument provides no evidence to support the contention that opening other recreational facilities, such as a tennis court or a miniature golf course, would help Take Heart to achieve its larger goal of increasing memberships. For instance, if there are minimal people in the area who can actually play tennis, a new tennis court will most certainly not increase memberships for Take Heart. Without assessing the demographics and consumer demand in the area, the suggestion to add new facilities to the center is poor business advice.
Therefore, the argument presented by Take Heart’s management, as it stands, is unconvincing.