The following appeared as part of a campaign to sell advertising time on a local radio station to local businesses:
“The Cumquat Café began advertising on our local radio station this year and was delighted to see its business increase by 10 percent over last year’s totals. Their success shows you how you can use radio advertising to make your business more profitable.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
Answer:
The argument claims that businesses can become more profitable using radio advertising. Stating it this way, the argument fails to mention several key factors that upon which it can be evaluated, thus revealing several leaps of faith and poor reasoning. The conclusion of the argument relies on assumptions of which there is no clear evidence. Therefore argument contains several flaws and can not be substantiated.
First, the argument assumes that radio advertising is the only factor responsible for the 10 percent business increase. This assumption is flawed, as there could be a lot of factors responsible for the business increase. The argument can be more convincing if author mentions all the other possible reasons which could be responsible for the business increase. For example, the business increase could be due to a general increase in demands for the products sold by the Cumquat Cafe. It could be that there is an increase in purchasing power of the customers. It could also be due to the fact that other competing businesses are no longer operating. Attributing the increase to only radio advertising without proving why other factors could not be responsible is not convincing.
Secondly, the argument assumes that the business increase came as leads from the radio advertisment. This does not provide enough evidence to show that there is a correlation between radio advertisement and business increase. The argument fails to convincly attribute the business increase to the radio advert. For example, it could be that a returning customer, ordered in bulk quantity, and therefore led to the growth in sales. It could also be that the increase came from a customer based on referrals or other forms of business marketing. Without proving a clear attribution, this argument cannot be substantiated.
Finally the argument assumes that business increase will lead to a more profitable business. This begs the following questions: Does the revenue generated from the business increase covers the cost of advertisement? Does the revenue covers the additional operating costs and risks that comes with serving more customers? Without clear answers to these questions, the argument is nothing but a wishful thinking. The business further assumes that because an increase was experienced by Cumquat Cafe, therefore other businesses would experienced similar increase. This fails to take into consideration the nature of different business models, industry, cost structure and geography. This kind of extrapolation is fundamentally flawed and does not hold water. The argument can be strengthen if it gets into the business mode of the Cumquat Cafe business and provide evidence that shows that the increase can be extrapolated to other kinds of businesses.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the reasons stated above above, and therefore not convincing. The argument would have been more convincing if the relevants facts are provided. In order to evaluate the merits of an argument, the full knowledge of all the contributing factors and knowledge are needed.