Question:
The following appeared in a memorandum issued by a large city’s council on the arts.
“In a recent citywide poll, fifteen percent more residents said that they watch television programs about the visual arts than was the case in a poll conducted five years ago. During these past five years, the number of people visiting our city’s art museums has increased by a similar percentage. Since the corporate funding that supports public television, where most of the visual arts programs appear, is now being threatened with severe cuts, we can expect that attendance at our city’s art museums will also start to decrease. Thus some of the city’s funds for supporting the arts should be relocated to public television.”
Answer:
The argument states that the threat of severe cuts faced by the corporate funding that supports public television, where most visual arts program appear, is likely to lead to a decrease in attendance of people at the city arts museums. As a result, the author claims that some of the city's funds should be relocated to public television. Stated this way, the argument fails to mention several key factors on the basis of which it could be evaluated, and reveals examples of leap of faith and poor reasoning. The conclusion of the argument relies on assumptions for which there is no clear evidence. Hence, the argument is flawed and unconvincing.
First, the argument falsely compares percentages of a population separated of a 5 year gap and deem it acceptable as reliable evidence. This piece of data is not substantiated in any way since the number of people in a population can change drastically over the course of a 5 year period. Additionally, we have no poof that the people answering the poll are comparatively close in the two periods of time. For example, out of a population of 500,000 people in 2015, 10% (50,000 people) could have answered the poll. Whereas out of a population of 600,000 people in 2020, 50% could have answered the poll (300,000 people). The argument could have been considerably strengthened had the author provided absolute numbers about the population in question in each of the two time frames as well as the number of people who answered the poll.
Second, the argument seems to believe in a correlation between the percentage of people watching the television programs about visual arts and the number of people visiting the city arts museums. Also, the argument claims that the threat of severe cuts will impact the attendance rate of people to arts museums. This is a very weak and unconvincing claim since the author fails to demonstrate any ground on which a correlation could stand.
Without any data to back the claims, we cannot believe that cuts in budget (if the threats come to fruition) will undoubtably lead to a decline in attendance. For all we know, people attending might not even watch television, let alone watch the programs related to arts museums. We also don't know the budget allocated to the tv programs that are discussed in the argument. On what basis can we conclude that additional funds should be relocated to public television? What if the production company was being granted an over-budget? And thus, a cut in the budget wouldn't seriously affect the progress of the tv programs. Without any convincing answers to these questions, one is left with the impression that the argument is more of a wishful thinking rather than substantive evidence.
To conclude, the argument is flawed and heavily erroneous for the above mentioned reasons.It could be significantly bolstered had the author mentioned all the relevant facts. In order to assess the merits of a certain situation, it is important to have full knowledge of all contribution factors.