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The following appeared in a memorandum issued by a large city’s council on the arts.
"In a recent citywide poll, fifteen percent more residents said that they watch television programs about the visual arts than was the case in a poll conducted five years ago. During these past five years, the number of people visiting our city’s art museums has increased by a similar percentage. Since the corporate funding that supports public television, where most of the visual arts programs appear, is now being threatened with severe cuts, we can expect that attendance at our city’s art museums will also start to decrease. Thus some of the city’s funds for supporting the arts should be reallocated to public television."The prompt states that a poll showcasing an increase in viewership of T.V programs about the visual arts has directly caused an increase in the general population visiting the city's arts museums, and, a slash in budget for these programs will result in lower attendance at these museums going forward. This reasoning is highly fallible as the prompt assumes the efficacy of the poll, the correlation of T.V viewership to in-person attendance, and the effects of the budget cut to the attendance city's art museums. The conclusion of this argument is weak.
Firstly the prompt assumes that the poll is indicitive of the general population's habits in comparison to the habits of the population 5 years ago. This must be assessed with caution as there is no indication of consistency in the polling methods. For example, polls in the initial trial may have been conducted during the summer, when residence would spend more time outdoors, whereas the later trial may have been conducted in the winter, a time for most to stay indoors due to the colder weather. Clearly there is room for doubt and the argument could have been made better if it stated how the polling was conducted and what the sample size of the population was for the poll.
Secondly, the argument claims that there is a correlation between viewership numbers and in-person attendance. This is again a very weak argument as there is not confirmation that the individuals who watch these shows are those that visit the museums. To illustrate, schools and universities may be providing more mandatory tours to students to the museums while new exhibits could have caught the attention of visitors to the city, thereby increasing foot traffic through the museums. If the argument had shown that there was a strong connection between T.V. viewers and the in-person traffic then the argument could have been more convincing.
Finally, the statement concludes that a budget cut to TV programing would result in lower traffic through the city's museums and that a portion of the city's art budget should be reallocated to television. This is a ridiculous claim as the opportunity cost of the reallocation is not weighed. The budget could be better used to attract residents and tourists to the arts and may yield greater impact on the foot fall through the city's museums than through allocation into public television.
In conclusion, the argument is left lacking and flawed for the abovementioned reasons. It could be considerably strengthened if the author clearly laid out the correlation between public television and the foot traffic through the museum, and the opportunity cost of the budget allocation.