Sajjad1994Requesting to evaluate my essay on the undermentioned AWA prompt :-
QUESTIONThe following appeared in the personal finance section of a popular magazine:
“The average price of an acre of land in the United States is now 50 times what it was in 1970, and nearly 200 times what it was in 1920. The nation’s population is projected to keep increasing, even as the amount of land remains constant. Therefore, people who are approaching retirement should invest heavily in real estate in order to ensure their financial security.”Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For
example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.RESPONSEThe argument under reference, an extract from personal finance section of a popular magazine, argues in favor of the retirees adopting real estate as a preferred investment category towards ensuring their financial security, based on the sole assumption of land prices predicted to increase further vis-a-vis the existing price levels. While at an initial glance, the argument appears logically convincing, on a deeper analysis, it comes to the fore that the argument suffers from doubtful assumptions, as also, it is inadequately supported by tangible evidence. Besides the lack of supporting evidence, the argument has several critical flaws, which have been enumerated in the succeeding paragraphs.
Firstly, the argument bases the prediction in favor of real estate as the recommended financial instrument to achieve financial security on the assumption that the real estate prices will be driven higher on the back of increasing population. Such overarching assumption may clearly be unwarranted. The author needs to analyze the related factors, to include the existing demand for housing, unsold inventory of apartments being constructed on land parcels, and the land prices' trends in the recent years.
Secondly, the author has not adequately supported the argument through tangible evidence. In this regard, the author needs to support the argument on basis of the purchasing power of the existing population, income levels, and the real estate regulations, all of which have the potential to significantly alter the future demand for real estate.
Thirdly, the author has provided that that the amount of land available remains constant and so the land prices will continue to rise to cater to the increasing population. However, with the increased development goals adopted by the national governments, the probability regarding availability of additional land parcels and development of new areas in the hinterland also needs to be analyzed.
Lastly, the author has argued heavily in favor of real estate without providing for related comparison data in respect of gains resulting from investments in other available financial instruments such as bonds, debt instruments, and stocks. There is a probability that other instruments may achieve higher financial security as compared to real estate, particularly in a futuristic perspective.
Towards improving the logical soundness of the argument, the author needs to support the argument by enhancing the scope by drawing comparisons to other available modes of achieving financial security, as also, include the recent price trends, surveys and population category analyses, to highlight that the demand for real estate will not show a decreasing trend in future.
In essence, the argument, in its existing state, is logically unconvincing owing to its adoption of weak assumptions as well as lack of supporting evidence. In order to provide further logical consistency to the argument, the author needs to support the argument with enough data and analyses, to justify its strong recommendation in favor of real estate.