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19 Oct 2023, 06:06
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Thanks in advance for evaluating my essay!
The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment/financial consulting firm:
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counter examples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
My answer:
The argument claims that demand for coffee will increase and demand for cola will decrease over the next 20 years; thus, the company should transfer its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. Stated in this way, the argument conveys a distorted view of the projected coffee and cola markets and fails to consider other factors that may be important in the decision of whether to transfer investments. The conclusion relies on assumptions about the future for which there is no clear evidence. Hence, the argument is unconvincing and has several flaws.
First, the argument readily assumes that older adults are the only relevant consumer group. The statement is a stretch because younger generations that make up the rest of the market and who will be participants in the market over the next 20 years are not taken into consideration. For example, the children of the older adults may increase their consumption of cola and decrease their consumption of coffee, thereby offsetting the changes in demand that the author anticipates. In addition, just because the trend has held for 40 years doesn’t mean that it will hold for the next 20 years. There may be other market changes, such as the price of coffee and cola, that affect consumers’ demand irrespective of age. The argument could have been much clearer if it explicitly stated whether these additional factors would indeed affect demand.
Secondly, the argument claims that projected changes in consumer demand should be the determining factor in whether to transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. This is again a very unconvincing and incomplete rationalization for the decision because there are other factors that the company ought to consider together with the changes in demand. For example, profitability is often an extremely important metric by which companies make decisions. Cola Loca could still be a very profitable investment even if demand decreases; therefore, it may make financial sense for the company to maintain its investments in Cola Loca. If the argument had provided evidence of projected changes to profitability or other compelling financial metrics for the two beverage chains, then the argument would have been a lot more convincing.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the above mentioned reasons and leaves the reader with several questions. It is uncertain whether the consumption trends will hold in the future because of the possibility of conflicting factors. There are still too many unknowns about the next 20 years and about the specific financial goals of the company. It is essential to have full knowledge of these influential considerations. However, without such, a conclusion about what the best investment decision is for the company cannot be convincingly reached. Thus, the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate.
The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment/financial consulting firm:
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counter examples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
My answer:
The argument claims that demand for coffee will increase and demand for cola will decrease over the next 20 years; thus, the company should transfer its investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. Stated in this way, the argument conveys a distorted view of the projected coffee and cola markets and fails to consider other factors that may be important in the decision of whether to transfer investments. The conclusion relies on assumptions about the future for which there is no clear evidence. Hence, the argument is unconvincing and has several flaws.
First, the argument readily assumes that older adults are the only relevant consumer group. The statement is a stretch because younger generations that make up the rest of the market and who will be participants in the market over the next 20 years are not taken into consideration. For example, the children of the older adults may increase their consumption of cola and decrease their consumption of coffee, thereby offsetting the changes in demand that the author anticipates. In addition, just because the trend has held for 40 years doesn’t mean that it will hold for the next 20 years. There may be other market changes, such as the price of coffee and cola, that affect consumers’ demand irrespective of age. The argument could have been much clearer if it explicitly stated whether these additional factors would indeed affect demand.
Secondly, the argument claims that projected changes in consumer demand should be the determining factor in whether to transfer investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. This is again a very unconvincing and incomplete rationalization for the decision because there are other factors that the company ought to consider together with the changes in demand. For example, profitability is often an extremely important metric by which companies make decisions. Cola Loca could still be a very profitable investment even if demand decreases; therefore, it may make financial sense for the company to maintain its investments in Cola Loca. If the argument had provided evidence of projected changes to profitability or other compelling financial metrics for the two beverage chains, then the argument would have been a lot more convincing.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the above mentioned reasons and leaves the reader with several questions. It is uncertain whether the consumption trends will hold in the future because of the possibility of conflicting factors. There are still too many unknowns about the next 20 years and about the specific financial goals of the company. It is essential to have full knowledge of these influential considerations. However, without such, a conclusion about what the best investment decision is for the company cannot be convincingly reached. Thus, the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate.
19 Oct 2023, 23:25
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AWA Score: 4.5 - 5 out of 6
Coherence and Connectivity: 4.5
The essay demonstrates a high level of coherence and connectivity, with clear progression from one point to the next. Each paragraph is logically connected to the previous one, and the argument's structure is easy to follow. However, the essay could benefit from slightly smoother transitions in a few places.
Word Structure: 5
The essay exhibits a strong command of word structure. The vocabulary used is appropriate and varied. Sentences are well-structured and clear, contributing to the overall effectiveness of the essay.
Paragraph Structure and Formation: 4.5
The essay effectively uses paragraphs to separate different points, and each paragraph focuses on a single idea or aspect of the argument. However, the essay could benefit from a more explicit topic sentence at the beginning of each paragraph to guide the reader.
Language and Grammar: 5
The essay displays a high level of language and grammar proficiency. There are only a few minor grammatical issues, such as subject-verb agreement in one sentence. Otherwise, the language is clear and precise, contributing to the overall quality of the essay.
Vocabulary and Word Expression: 5
The vocabulary and word expression in the essay are strong. The author uses a variety of words and phrases effectively. The language is sophisticated and contributes to the overall clarity and persuasiveness of the essay.
Overall, the essay is well-structured and effectively conveys the author's critique of the argument presented. It demonstrates a strong command of language and grammar. The main areas for improvement include slightly smoother transitions and more explicit topic sentences for each paragraph.
Coherence and Connectivity: 4.5
The essay demonstrates a high level of coherence and connectivity, with clear progression from one point to the next. Each paragraph is logically connected to the previous one, and the argument's structure is easy to follow. However, the essay could benefit from slightly smoother transitions in a few places.
Word Structure: 5
The essay exhibits a strong command of word structure. The vocabulary used is appropriate and varied. Sentences are well-structured and clear, contributing to the overall effectiveness of the essay.
Paragraph Structure and Formation: 4.5
The essay effectively uses paragraphs to separate different points, and each paragraph focuses on a single idea or aspect of the argument. However, the essay could benefit from a more explicit topic sentence at the beginning of each paragraph to guide the reader.
Language and Grammar: 5
The essay displays a high level of language and grammar proficiency. There are only a few minor grammatical issues, such as subject-verb agreement in one sentence. Otherwise, the language is clear and precise, contributing to the overall quality of the essay.
Vocabulary and Word Expression: 5
The vocabulary and word expression in the essay are strong. The author uses a variety of words and phrases effectively. The language is sophisticated and contributes to the overall clarity and persuasiveness of the essay.
Overall, the essay is well-structured and effectively conveys the author's critique of the argument presented. It demonstrates a strong command of language and grammar. The main areas for improvement include slightly smoother transitions and more explicit topic sentences for each paragraph.
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