Thanks in advance for evaluating my essay!
The following appeared as part of a column in a popular entertainment magazine:
“The producers of the forthcoming movie 3003 will be most likely to maximize their profits if they are willing to pay Robin Good several million dollars to star in it—even though that amount is far more than any other person involved with the movie will make. After all, Robin has in the past been paid a similar amount to work in several films that were very financially successful.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
My answer: The argument claims that the upcoming movie, 3003, will maximize its profits if they pay Robin Good several million dollars to star in it. Since previous movies that Robin has starred in where he was paid a similar amount were financially successful, the producers believe that their movie will achieve the same outcome. Stated in this way, the argument fails to consider several key factors that could affect the success of this particular movie and remains unsubstantiated.
First, the argument readily assumes that Robin's previous successful movies are comparable to 3003. This is a stretch because we do not know anything about the nature of 3003 or his previous movies. There are plenty of variables that could have caused the success of his previous movies; just because Robin Good was casted in those movies doesn’t mean he was the reason for their success. Additionally, there are too many unknowns about 3003 and the effect of casting Robin Good for it. For example, if 3003 was a biographical account of Robin Good’s life, then casting Robin Good may indeed maximize its chances of success. However, if 3003 is entirely unrelated to Robin’s previous works - such as in its genre and audience - then casting Good may not lead to a significant difference in profits than if the producers were to cast a different actor. The argument could have been much clearer if it described some of these important elements about both his previous movies and 3003.
Second, the argument claims that they must pay Robin Good several million dollars in order for him to accept the role. This is a weak claim because his previous movies may have had a larger budget, of which his salary was a certain percentage. If 3003 has a smaller budget, Good may be willing to accept this role with its comparatively smaller salary if the percentage of the overall budget that his salary would account for is still on par with the percentage of the budget he received in his previous movies. In addition, Good may be motivated to accept the role for non-financial reasons. If he is particularly interested in certain aspects of 3003 or in portraying that particular character, then the producers may not need to pay him millions of dollars. Without knowing what would motivate Good - financially and non-financially - to accept the role, we cannot conclude that the producers must pay Good several millions. If the argument had provided evidence regarding his motives, the argument would have been much more convincing.
In summary, the argument has several significant flaws and is therefore unconvincing. Using the conditions of his previous movies’ success as a prediction of 3003’s success is an unsupported leap of faith because there are too many unknowns, including Good’s motives for whether or not to accept the role and the nature of 3003. The argument could be considerably strengthened if the author clearly mentioned these relevant facts. Without such, the conclusion of the argument remains questionable and open to debate.