I mean, here's the honest truth--you want to be good at both. People are indicating as such, noting that there is a 'hybrid approach' to this. It very much helps to be good at 'pre-thinking' before going to answers, but, it also very much helps to have a good 'elimination' instinct. I definitely lean towards 'pre-thinking,' but definitely there comes a question where...
Wait none of these are what I thought of (Here's a great example:
https://gmatclub.com/forum/guillemots-a ... 82065.html)
In absolutely no way did I pre-think anything *close* to what ends up being the right answer to that question. I don't think I've ever seen *anyone* 'pre-think' that one well. It's such a specific (and very tricky) game they've set up.
In fact, if someone is good at pre-thinking, but not great at eliminating, they are more likely to fall for (what I think is) the best 'trap' answer because they'll 'talk themselves' into thinking the trap answer 'fits' their pre-thinking (it doesn't, but it feels like it does).
I'd give that problem a try before reading on (because I'm going to spoil it by explaining why I think it's a good example of what I'm discussing).
So, everyone's pre-thinking on that question (and, to be fair, a *good* thing to pre-think) is something like, "Well, what if the birds don't move north, even though it's getting warmer there? What if there is reason not to move North?"
Great thought.... But then... Which answer matches that? If people are *committed* to this pre-thought, they'll justify choosing answer 'B,' thinking, "Well, if their predators move North, maybe the birds won't."
But... If the presence of predators kept birds out of a region.... They wouldn't be in the region they're in! In fact that would mean there could never be predators, because no 'prey' would be around them. If there were some *new* predator in the North, *maybe* that would be reason? But their current predators are already eating them... Welp, they can eat us in the North too!
D doesn't seem to do what we 'pre-thought.' In fact, if you're not careful, you might say, "This makes it even more likely they'll move North, so that's not the answer."
But another helpful CR skill can help you realize why D is right--the conclusion is NOT move North... The conclusion is 'extend their range by moving North.' So there are two ways not to extend their range by moving North. What we 'pre-thought' (they don't move North). But also... very sneaky... They DO move North but *abandon the South*.
WHO COULD PRE-THINK THAT?!?! Hardly anybody, I wager. You have to be a bloodhound for why wrong answers are wrong, notice D and be curious, re-specify the conclusion to yourself, and have that 'ohhhhhhh' realization.