CORE ARGUMENT (ultra-tight)
Evidence: Writing “Thank you” → tips increase by about 3 percentage points (study, random bills)
Conclusion: If done regularly, servers’ average tip income would be significantly higher
Shift: one-time experimental effect → long-term real-world habit
PRETHINK (KEY AREA)
We need assumptions that allow:
short-term experimental bump → sustained real-world income increase
Gap 1 — Habit persistence
Type: Necessary Condition
Customers will not reduce their tipping response after repeatedly seeing “Thank you”.
Gap 2 — No adaptation / diminishing effect
Type: Causation vs Correlation
The increase in tips is caused by the message itself, and this effect does not weaken with repetition.
Gap 3 — Generalization from experiment → real life
Type: Sampling / Representativeness
The behavior observed in the study accurately reflects real-world customer behavior over time.
Gap 4 — No alternative driver during study
Type: Alternative Cause
The higher tips were not due to other factors (such as friendlier service when writing the message).
Gap 5 — Scaling assumption
Type: Scope Shift
A small average increase (3%) per bill translates into a meaningful increase in overall income.
Most critical gap:
People won’t get used to it and ignore it over time
OPTION ANALYSIS (DETAILED)
(A)
FULL:
The “Thank you” messages would have the same impact on regular patrons of a restaurant as they would on occasional patrons of the same restaurant
Analysis:
Compares regular vs occasional customers
Argument never splits customers this way
Even if impact differs, overall income can still rise
Not required
Fails because: irrelevant subgroup comparison
(B) CORRECT
FULL:
Regularly seeing “Thank you” written on their bills would not lead restaurant patrons to revert to their earlier tipping habits
Analysis:
Directly targets repetition problem
If people revert → no long-term increase
Argument needs sustained effect
This is the necessary bridge
(C)
FULL:
The written “Thank you” reminds restaurant patrons that tips constitute a significant part of the income of many food servers
Analysis:
Gives a reason (mechanism)
Argument does not require knowing why it works
Even if reason is wrong, effect could still hold
Fails because: mechanism not required
(D)
FULL:
The rate at which people tip food servers in Pennsylvania does not vary with how expensive a restaurant is
Analysis:
Talks about restaurant price differences
Study compares with vs without message
Price variation does not break conclusion
Fails because: irrelevant factor
(E)
FULL:
Virtually all patrons of the Pennsylvania restaurants in the study who were given a bill with “Thank you” written on it left a larger tip than they otherwise would have
Analysis:
Very strong claim (“virtually all”)
Argument only needs average increase
Too extreme to be necessary
Fails because: overkill requirement
TRAPS + PATTERNS
Mechanism trap → explaining why (C)
Extreme language → “virtually all” (E)
Irrelevant comparison → subgroup split (A)
Background noise → unrelated variable (D)
CONCEPT TAKEAWAY
Pattern:
Experiment → real-world recommendation
Always check:
Will effect persist over time?
Will people adapt or ignore it?
Fast shortcut:
When you see “if done regularly → benefit”
Ask: “Will people get used to it?”