"Parents, if you need a summer camp for your children look no further than Federville Farms. In a recent survey, Federville Farms ranked first in both overall camper satisfaction and in food quality, and second in the variety of outdoor activities. Federville Farms has been family owned and operated for over forty years, so you have nothing to worry about when it comes to your child's safety, and it employs more Red Cross certified lifeguards than any other camp in the state. If you seek the best camp experience for your children, Federville Farms is the best choice you can make."
In the preceding statement, the author claims that parents looking for summer camps for their children should choose Federville Farms because it is almost ranked first in all criteria, and it ensures children’s security by means of Red Cross certified lifeguards and the family owned camp management. Though his claim may well have merit, the author presents a poorly reasoned argument, based on several questionable premises and assumptions, and based solely on the evidence the author offers, we cannot accept his argument as valid.
First, the primary issue with the author's reasoning lies in his unsubstantiated assumption that revealing that Federville Farms ranked first in both overall camper satisfaction and in food quality, and second in the variety of outdoor activities, the recent survey is certainly realiable. What if there are some camps that are higher qualified than Federville Farms in the subjects , which the survey took consideration, and that are not included in the survey. If so, it may be not be good decision for parents to send their children Federville Farms while there are other more qualified camps. In the same manner, it may be true that he survey got whole existing camps involved very well, but the degree to which there is at least one camp ranked first too in overall camper satisfaction, in food quality, and in the variety of outdoor activities is unknown. Perhalps,the same survey also showed that there were two other camps ranked first in all camp related subjects ,and if so, parents who choose Federville Farms are meant not to go for the best camp. The author's assumption, the basis for his argument, lack any legitimate evidentiary support and render his conclusion unacceptable.
Second, the argument claims that the camp was built by and is now operated by a family, and that there are more Red Cross certified lifeguards in the camp than in any other camps in order to suggest that, children who join the camp will be kept safe throughout the camp. Safeguards and the management of Federville Farms by a family may not enough for children to become safe. There may be some dangerous conditions in the camp; for example, if there is no fire extinguisher in the camp, in case of fire, it can not be taken under control, and whole children participating camp activities would be under risk. Furthermore, the fact that the author fails to provide explication of the links between the number of Red Cross certified lifeguards and how well all security standards are satisfied in the camp creates another logical hole big enough to prevent the author from building the argument on a strong foundation.
Finally, while the author does have several key issues in his argument's premises and assumptions, that is not to say that the entire argument is without base.He would have to largely establish, first, that the survey, which regards Federville Farms as the best camp is extremely reliable by adding evidence that the survey assessed all child camps in the world and that it is based on well constructed standards, which are approved by pedagogs. Second, the author would need to demonstrate that how family operated business and the highest number of Red Cross certified lifeguards be considered when it comes to safety of children in camp environments. For instance, the author can give a fact that ninety percent of all camp injures occured because of lack of Red Cross certified lifeguards in the past year. At that moment, it would be more possible to persuade parents, whose first criter of camp choice issafety, to choose Federville Farms as a camp presenting best security solutions in the camp. Though there are several issues with the author's reasoning at present, with research and clarification, he could improve his argument significantly.
In sum, the author's illogical argument is based on unsupported premises and unsubstantiated assumptions that render his conclusion invalid. If the author truly hopes to change his readers' minds on the issue, he would have to largely restructure his argument, fix the flaws in his logic, clearly explicate his assumptions, and provide evidentiary support. Without these things, his poorly reasoned argument will likely convince few people.