Ythex has developed a small diesel engine that produces 30 percent les

I think it has to be D.
If we negate D the option will be "the ban will be difficult to enforce".
If it is difficult to enforce then the sales of Onez may not be affected

Conclusion: if the ban is passed, the Ythex engine ought to sell well in Marania after that time.
E is correct IMHO,
Ythex engine is expensive but there is nothing pushing the businesses to switch to this engine. The ban, if enforced, will ultimately mean they have to switch from their current engines. If there is another company that makes inexpensive, more popular and cleaner engines, surely the businesses will switch to that engine.
D is close, but there is no reason to believe that difficulty in enforcing a ban doesn't mean that the ban WILL NOT be enforced at some point.

OA:E
Option D when negated, "the ban will be difficult to enforce". But this does not mean the ban will never be enforced. It's difficult to enforce but not immposibke. Hence E.

Posted from my mobile device

I was able to narrow down to D and E but ended up choosing the wrong answer D.

Answer D weakens the conclusion that "So if the ban is passed, the Ythex engine ought to sell well in Marania after that time". However, the fact that the law is difficult to be enforced does not mean that it will never be enforced.

Otherwise, if we negate the answer E "Other manufacturers can produce engine as popular and clean-running as Ythex's", it clearly breaks the conclusion.

Why is A wrong?
Negate A:Marania's warehousing and transshipment business buys a few diesel engines of any size than other types of engines.
This shatters the conclusion that the sale of Ythrex should rise right?

A. Marania's warehousing and transshipment business buys more diesel engines of any size than other types of engines. -- Irrelevant. Eliminated.

B. Ythex is likely to be able to reduce the cost of its small diesel engine within the next two years. -- Cost is not the concern here. Eliminated. The "selling well" is based on the reasoning that competition will be eliminated due to the ban. Choice B does not address that.

C. The Maranian government is generally favorable to anti-pollution regulations. -- Irrelevant. Eliminated.

D. The government's ban on high levels of pollution caused by diesel engines, if passed, will not be difficult to enforce. --- Close. But this does not destroy the argument completely. Negating this, we will get "if passed, will be difficult to enforce" -- Difficult but not impossible. May not mean that Onez may still be able to sell its diesel engines.

E. The other manufacturers of small diesel engines in Marania, if there are any, have not produced an engine as popular and clean-running as Ythex's new engine. -- Correct choice. Negating this completely breaks the conclusion in so far as new competition will come up with equal quality engine.

Experts -- I have a question -- is it a cause of worry that i'm not able to pre-think (i mean i was but the correct choice wasn't one of the pre-thought answers) but analysing the answer choices, i got to this one fairly quickly (took me 1:13 min). daagh DmitryFarber

ravigupta2912 You certainly shouldn't expect to be able to predict every answer, but this is one that you might want to see coming, at least in broad terms. When I read it, I noticed that they compared the engine only to its main competitor, so I definitely wondered if other companies might be able to retool their factories more quickly or otherwise produce a competitive product. I also wondered if something might cause the new Ythex engine to become subject to the ban, although the existing wording did not hint at that. These ideas came up because I was trying to drive a wedge between the existing premises (lower pollution than competitor; competitor can't catch up in time to avoid ban) with the conclusion (this particular engine will sell well). It's worth continuing to work on prediction, and then always reviewing to see how you might have predicted any answers you didn't think of. Also, if you ended up predicting one of the wrong answers, you also want to review to see why that answer isn't what you need. Keep at it, but in the end, you'll need to be flexible, and sometimes you can spot an answer just fine when you didn't think of it beforehand.

I'm still torn between D) and E). They both seem not the best-perfect-fit option to me.
I understand that D) has a bit of a too narrow scope, focusing on the fact that enforcement of the law should not be difficult. That is not the authors main point.
But i do not quite fully understand why E) should necessarily be needed. - Why should competition necessarily mean, that Ythex' engine will not sell well?
Can Ythex' engine not still sell well, when there is one other competitor with a similiar engine?

The correct answer is option (E).

Gist of the passage:
1. Ythex has developed a diesel engine
2. This engine has 30% less particulate pollution than the engine made by the main rival, Onez
3. Onez is currently widely used in Marania
4. Ythex's engine costs more than the Onex engine
5. Ythex's engine is well-suited for use in the thriving (i.e. doing well) warehousing businesses in Marania, despite the higher cost because
a) The Maranian government plans to ban diesel engines with >80% of the current particulate emission
b) Onez will most probably not be able to re-tool their engine to meet this target
6. Conclusion: if the ban is passed, Ythex engine should sell well in Marania after that time (after the ban)

Understanding the math in the passage:

Say, current Particulate emission standard of Marania = 100 ppm (can try with any value!)
New accepted emission = 80% of 100 ppm = 80 ppm
Say current particulate emission of Onez engine = 99 ppm (has to be <=100 else Onex would not have been allowed even in the present case).
Onez will not be able to improve upon this, so he will not be able to sell after the ban
expected particulate emission of Ythex engine = 70% of 99 ppm = 69 ppm <80 ppm. (whichever values we assume, this will hold true!)

This is the author's logic when he concludes that Ythex will be able to sell well after the ban. Ythex will meet new criteria, Onez will not.

Question: Find the assumption in the argument

Thought Process:
In what scenario would Ythex engine not sell well in Marania, even after the ban?

Given:
1. Ban will be enforced on engines with >80% of previous emission standard
2. Ythex will meet the new criteria, but Onez will not

Condition 1: What if the ban is not rigorously applied in Marania? i.e. ban on paper, but in reality, companies are still buying Onez engines despite the ban? Then, despite the ban, Ythex may not sell well, as companies still buy Onez.

Assumption 1: The ban is enforced in Marania at a significantly large level

Condition 2: What if there enters some other player in the market, whose engine also meets the criteria, and for some reason (say, better output) end up being more popular than Ythex? Then, Onez may not sell, but this other competitor's engine will sell well instead of Ythex.

Assumption 2: No other competitor for Ythex will enter the market with an engine that also meets the criteria but is significantly more popular than Ythex's engine.


Let us look at the answer choices.

A. Marania's warehousing and transshipment business buys more diesel engines of any size than other types of engines.
Out of scope. This only implies that more diesel engines are bought. It does not impact the argument about Ythex selling well in the market after the ban.

B. Ythex is likely to be able to reduce the cost of its small diesel engine within the next two years.
The cost of the engine is irrelevant. The argument does not concern the cost aspect at all. For all we know, despite high cost, the product may sell well as it is the best quality product. Hence, this assumption when negated will not definitely break the conclusion.

C. The Maranian government is generally favorable to anti-pollution regulations.
Irrelevant. What the Maranian government favours or does not favour has no bearing on the argument. This cannot be the assumption.

D. The government's ban on high levels of pollution caused by diesel engines, if passed, will not be difficult to enforce.
I see most folks are confused about this option. Let me try to clarify why this option is not the correct answer!

If you have followed my analysis, you will see this closely resembles my assumption 1. But still, this is not the correct answer.

Negated: The government's ban will be difficult to enforce. Difficult to enforce does not mean impossible to enforce.

Despite the difficulty in enforcing the ban, the government may well be able to enforce the ban to a significant enough degree that most companies will have to buy Ythex. Hence, Ythex can still sell well despite the difficulty in enforcing the ban.

Or in other words, this assumption when negated will not definitely break the conclusion.

E. The other manufacturers of small diesel engines in Marania, if there are any, have not produced an engine as popular and clean-running as Ythex's new engine.
This is in line with our assumption 2. If some other manufacturer has brought in a diesel engine that meets the criteria and is as popular than Ythex's engine, then Ythex's engine will definitely not sell well. This definitely breaks the conclusion.

The key word is 'popular'. That tells us that this other engine will eat into the market that Ythex had hoped to capture. In other words, Ythex would not do well by the estimates they had made.

If you expected to capture 90% of the market after the ban, and captured only 45% (because of an equally popular competitor), would you be able to claim that you have sold well? This is the reasoning for why Ythex would not sell "well". Hence, the negated assumption definitely breaks the conclusion.

Cheers!

Take a look at this post for an in-depth analysis of (E).

In addition, here's another look at the exact wording of the author's conclusion:

"If the ban is passed, the Ythex engine ought to sell well in Marania after that time."

Here, the author makes it clear that he/she EXPECTS that the Ythex engine ought to sell well after the ban. His/her evidence to support this expectation is that the ban will eliminate Ythex's main competition. This is different than saying that the Ythex engine absolutely WILL sell well after the ban -- and if you try to use the negation test using this stronger conclusion, you'll end up with an inaccurate analysis.

So, we don't need to prove that Ythex's engine absolutely will NOT sell well without the correct answer choice -- instead, we need an answer choice that must be true in order for the author's expectation to hold water.

Let's say that another competitor has produced a popular, clean-running engine. Is it POSSIBLE that Ythex's engine will still sell well? Absolutely! But is it reasonable to say that Ythex's engine ought to sell well, given that the author's argument hinges on the lack of competition? Nope, now that argument is destroyed.

The author's argument depends on (E), so that is the correct answer choice.

I hope that helps!

Ythex has developed a small diesel engine that produces 30 percent less particulate pollution than the engine made by its main rival, Onez, now widely used in Marania; Ythex's engine is well-suited for use in the thriving warehousing businesses in Marania, though it costs more than the Onez engine. The Maranian government plans to ban within the next two years the use of diesel engines with more than 80 percent of current diesel engine particulate emissions in Marania, and Onez will probably not be able to retool its engine to reduce emissions to reach this target. So if the ban is passed, the Ythex engine ought to sell well in Marania after that time.

Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument above depends?

P : Y developed small engine, producing pollution 30% less than O's product
P : Y product is well-suited for warehousing business / cost more than O's product
P : government plans to ban old diesel engines + O will not be able to retool its product.
C : ban is passed, Y's sales will increase

A. Marania's warehousing and transshipment business buys more diesel engines of any size than other types of engines.
-> Irrelevant. This option is not talking anything about ban and increased sales of Y

B. Ythex is likely to be able to reduce the cost of its small diesel engine within the next two years.
-> Irrelevant. Although Y fails to reduce the cost, still the product of Y will thrive if ban is conducted correctly and O cannot sell its engine.

C. The Maranian government is generally favorable to anti-pollution regulations.
-> Irrelevant. Whether the government favors or not does not matter. Only important fact is that the policy is to be passed soon.

D. The government's ban on high levels of pollution caused by diesel engines, if passed, will not be difficult to enforce.
-> Irrelevant. Although enforcing the policy might be difficult, the market will have to react upon the policy at least for some degree. Important factor is how much the policy will be effective rather than how much it is difficult to implement the policy.

E. The other manufacturers of small diesel engines in Marania, if there are any, have not produced an engine as popular and clean running as Ythex's new engine.
-> Correct. If Ythex has to compete with a lot of companies other than Onez, the sales of Ythex might not be bigger than before.

CONCLUSION - If ban is passed - Ythex will sell well in Mariana

PRETHINKING -

IN WHAT SCENARIO - Ythex will not sell well in Mariana if the ban is passed

GIVEN -

1) Ythex diesel engine - 30% less particulate matter than Onez
2) Ythex is used in warehouse businesses in Mariana
3) Ythex costs more than Onez
4) Govt. of Mariana planning a ban in next 2 years on the use of diesel engines with > 80% of current diesel engine particulate
5) Onez won't be able to retool to meet the emission target

FALSIFICATION QUESTION - Ythex also won't be able to meet the emission target specified in his engine

ASSUMPTION - Ythex would be able to meet the emission target specified

ANSWER CHOICE ANALYSIS -

A) The number of engines bought by warehouse business - irrelevant to the conclusion
B) Effect of cost is not mentioned in the argument
C) Preference of Maranian government - irrelevant
D) Difficulty in enforcement - irrelevant
E) CORRECT - Note that this is not inline with our assumption but is correct, this must be true for the Ythex engines to sell well in Marania

I understand why D is incorrect but I have a doubt regarding E.

E. The other manufacturers of small diesel engines in Marania, if there are any, have not produced an engine as popular and clean-running as Ythex's new engine.

Other manufacturers not producing a cleaner engine now doesn't imply that it can't happen between now and 2 years, esp since the ban will be imposed 2 years later. Can someone please clarify?

The question asks us to find an assumption on which the argument depends. In other words, we're looking for an assumption that absolutely MUST be true in order for conclusion to hold water.

For instance, consider this example of a conclusion: "Tomorrow I will run away to a tropical island, assume an alternate identity, and live out the rest of my days as a lobsterwoman."

This conclusion depends on the assumption that "the Earth won't explode at some point today." If the Earth DOES explode, then my conclusion cannot occur. So, it is necessary to assume that the Earth won't explode.

However, this assumption doesn't GUARANTEE that my conclusion will come true. Even if the Earth doesn't explode I may never make it to the island, or I may be terrible at catching lobsters and will have to work as a GMAT tutor instead.

Back to the official question: you're absolutely right that (E) doesn't guarantee the conclusion -- maybe other companies will come up with a cleaner engine in the next two years! But that's ok, because the question doesn't ask for something that guarantees the conclusion. Instead, we're ask for something that is absolutely necessary in order for the conclusion to have a chance at being valid.

The conclusion completely falls apart if a bunch of other companies have an engine that can compete with Ythex under the new rules, because then we have no reason to believe that Ythex's engine will sell well.

So, we MUST assume that "other manufacturers of small diesel engines in Marania, if there are any, have not produced an engine as popular and clean-running as Ythex's new engine."

(E) is the correct answer.

I hope that helps!

Thank you so much! This absolutely helps. Also, when i read the question again today, I realized that E is correct since they're asking for the assumption that applies 'right now' and not in future. Thanks once again! and let me know once you decide to become a lobsterwoman so we can talk you out of it.

I do not agree with the OA because there is no clear definition of "sell well" . Even if Ythex has a competitor, it can still sell well. No way does negating E break the argument/conclusion. One of those very few Official questions of poor quality.

sehwag98
It's actually very normal for official arguments to have vague conclusions such as "this will sell well." It's not our job to quantify that, or to worry what constitutes selling well. We just have to consider what obstacles might exist. If this new engine is going to be the only option, then the conclusion looks pretty solid. If other engines will be just as good, then there's no particular reason to say that this one in particular will sell well. Sure, it still COULD, but the conclusion does not clearly follow from the premises given. Imagine that I applied for a job, and was sure that I'd get it because I met the qualifications. If it turned out that the other applicants were just as qualified, then my argument wouldn't really make much sense.