There are 9 people in the room. There are two pairs of siblings within that group. If we choose two people, what is the probability that they will not be siblings?
The reversal probability approach is the most efficient way to solve. But I explore the other methods just for practice. Tell me your opinions, I have a little doubt on the reversal combinatorial approach.
Probability approach:
XXXXXAABB
\(P= \frac{6}{9} * \frac{1}{2}*2 +\frac{5}{9}*\frac{4}{8} = \frac{12}{18} + \frac{5}{18} = \frac{17}{18}\)
\(\frac{6}{9}*\frac{1}{2}*2\): we choose 6 people out of 9 (XXX XXA, 6/9) and then 1 people out of the other 2 (BB 1/2). Then multiply by 2 because we choose again 6 people out of 9 (XXXXXB) and then 1 people out of the other 2 (AA).
\(\frac{5}{9}*\frac{4}{8}\): then we focus only on the other 5 that are not siblings (XXXXX). We choose this 5 people (XXXXX) out of all 9 (then 5/9) and we combine this one with the remaining 4 of the group (XXXX) of the remaining 8.
Reversal Probability approach:P = 1-q (q=probability of choosing one sibling)
\(q= \frac{2}{9} * \frac{1}{8} + \frac{2}{9} * \frac{1}{8} = \frac{4}{72} = \frac{1}{18}\)
\(P = 1-q = \frac{18}{18} - \frac{1}{18} = \frac{17}{18}\)
\(\frac{2}{9}\): probability of picking the person A from AABBXXXXX
\(\frac{1}{8}\): probability of picking the other A from the remaining ABBXXXXX
Then we add the probability of picking B from AABBXXXXX and probability of picking again B from AABXXXXX
Combinatorial approach:\(P= \frac{{C^6_1 * C^2_1 + C^6_1 * C^2_1 + C^5_2}}{C^9_2}= \frac{{6*2 + 6*2 + 10}}{36} = \frac{34}{36} = \frac{17}{18}\)
\(C^6_1 * C^2_1\): we choose one people from AXXXXX and combine with one people of BB
\(C^6_1 * C^2_1\): we pick one people of BXXXXX and combine it with one people of AA
\(C^5_2\): we choose 2 people from XXXXX
\(C^9_2\): total combinations of 2 from 9.
Reversal Combinatorial approach:\(q= \frac{{C^2_1 + C^2_1}}{C^9_2}= \frac{{2 + 2}}{72} =\frac{4}{72} = \frac{1}{18}\)
\(P = 1-q = \frac{18}{18} - \frac{1}{18} = \frac{17}{18}\)
\(C^2_1\): we choose 2 persons from the sibling (AA)
\(C^2_1\): we choose 2 persons from the sibling (BB)