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Bunuel, can we solve it using binomial probability?
Bunuel
massi2884
A string of 10 light bulbs is wired in such a way that if any individual light bulb fails, the entire string fails. If for each individual light bulb the probability of failing during time period T is 0.06, what is the probability that the string of light bulbs will fail during the time period T?

A. 0.06
B. (0.06)^10
C. 1 - (0.06)^10
D. (0.94)^10
E. 1 - (0.94)^10

I know it's not among the answer choices, but could you please tell me what's wrong with thinking that the result should be
0.06 + 0.06 + 0.06 + 0.06 + 0.06 + 0.06 + 0.06 + 0.06 + 0.06 + 0.06 = 10*0.06 = 0.6 ?

The string of light bulbs will fail if at least one light bulb fails. Thus, let's determine the probability of the opposite scenario and subtract this value from 1.

The opposite scenario is when none of the 10 light bulbs fail. Given that the probability of each light bulb not failing is 1 - 0.06 = 0.94, the probability that none of the 10 light bulbs fail is 0.94^10.

Therefore, the probability that at least one light bulb fails is 1 - 0.94^10.

Answer: E.

You should've realized that your reasoning was incorrect due to a simple factor. Consider the case where we have 100 light bulbs instead of 10, then according to your logic the probability that the string of light bulbs will fail would be 100*0.06=6. However, this is impossible as the probability of an event can never exceed 1 (100%).

Hope it's clear.
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Why the other options are wrong (quick intuition)

A. 0.06
→ That’s the failure probability of one bulb, not the whole string.

B. (0.06)10
→ That’s the probability all 10 bulbs fail, which is much rarer than “at least one fails”.

C. 1 − (0.06)10
→ That’s “not all 10 fail” — includes many cases where some work and some fail. Not the event we want.

D. (0.94)10
→ That’s the probability the string does not fail.
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