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Answer Choice (D) makes a strong rebuttal to the author's argument and is correct — there are just too many probable occurrences here rather than actual occurrences.

Choice (A) says that the author's argument is plausible but not based on contemporary evidence. This is only half right. The plausible suppositions are whether or not the crop was infected and whether the people ate contaminated rye. The contemporary evidence is that rainfall was heavy during the period under study.

Choice (B) is a 180 degree answer. Contrary to this answer, the author does make a clear distinction between cause and effect. It is the causal connection between the two that is open to rebuttal.

Choice (C) is tempting, but is only half right, as the given explanation is rational, just not likely.

Choice (E) is outside the scope of the argument. The nature of the violence or its frequency does not attack the basic flaw in the argument's logic, which is the tenuous connection between probable evidence and a definitive conclusion.
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It says "probably fell prey to", so it means the author heavily relies on probable occurrences, thus I say it's D.
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